UAB @ Navy: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2023)

Sat, Nov 11, 2023, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Navy · Conference game

Weather at kickoff54°F6 mphgusts 14DryWeather watch ›

UAB

3-6 · Power #102

final

Final

Navy

3-5 · Power #108

▲ winner

Closing spread

UAB -2.5

✓ NAVY W

Total

▼ Under · 37 pts

Model before kickoff

UAB 27–25 NAVY

✗ UAB (56%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUAB -2.5

Total52

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseUAB -2.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close52

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 54%, covered 46% (48 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUAB -2.5

Total52

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UAB as a 2.5-point road favorite at NAVY, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: NAVY won 31–6 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 37 points stayed under 52, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.7 against an average line of 2.5; 46.5 points a game (usually 54). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	OHIO @ M-OH 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	37–21	W	O52
Very close	KENT @ BGSU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & situation	-2.75	40–6	W	U55.75
Very close	WMU @ EMU 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	45–21	W	O49.5
Very close	TROY @ USA 2020 · Week 14 · very close · similar situation & rest	-4	29–0	W	U54
Very close	LT @ UTEP 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & rest	-1	24–10	W	U50.5
Very close	TROY @ GASO 2020 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & spread	-3	13–20	L	U52
Very close	CMU @ M-OH 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-1.75	17–28	L	U56
Very close	USF @ TEM 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	28–54	L	O49
Very close	NIU @ WMU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-0.5	24–21	W	U49
Very close	NEB @ RUTG 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	14–13	L	U50.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UAB WWLLW	5-4	56%	2-2	1-1
NAVY LLWPL	2-5-1	29%	0-3-1	1-1-1

Venue/role: UAB away, as favorite; NAVY home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UAB UOUOO	6-3	67%	3-6
NAVY O–UUO	3-3	50%	3-5

Stayed under: it needed 37 in the 4th quarter and got 21. 58% of games with totals 48–56 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UABlast 9	3-6 33%	5-4 56%	6-3 67%
NAVYlast 8	3-5 38%	2-5-1 29%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

UAB 1–3 NAVY NAVY leads · 4 games since 2023 · UAB has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UAB+0.5 →−6.2▼ 6.7#97

NAVY−15.5 →−9.1▲ 6.4#111

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

UAB

Longer bar = better

NAVY

#34

Offense

◀ UAB better

#121

#127

Defense

NAVY better ▶

#64

−0.3 #93

Turnovers

NAVY better ▶

+1.5 #3

73 plays #18

Pace

◀ UAB faster

62 plays #120

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UAB has the ball

Advantage: UAB offense

	UAB off	NAVY def	Edge
Points / game	30.8 #44	23.4 #52	Even
Yards / play	6.20 #42	5.77 #83	UAB
PPA / play	+0.22 #34	+0.07 #51	Even
Success rate	49% #15	42% #69	UAB

When NAVY has the ball

Even matchup

	NAVY off	UAB def	Edge
Points / game	18.3 #124	38.1 #135	Even
Yards / play	4.85 #121	6.18 #117	Even
PPA / play	+0.02 #111	+0.21 #124	Even
Success rate	36% #127	49% #133	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

UAB scoring against the NAVY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UAB scored	6.6 #52	12.8 #9	19.3 #19	5.0 #95	6.4 #79	11.4 #92
NAVY allowed	5.1 #62	7.3 #70	12.4 #61	3.0 #13	8.0 #94	11.0 #51

NAVY scoring against the UAB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NAVY scored	4.4 #101	3.6 #133	8.0 #127	4.0 #113	6.3 #84	10.3 #108
UAB allowed	8.1 #118	10.8 #122	18.9 #126	10.0 #131	9.2 #110	19.2 #133

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.