Texas State @ Coastal Carolina: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2023)

Sat, Nov 11, 2023, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Coastal Carolina · Conference game

Weather at kickoff52°F9 mphgusts 17Wet0.1 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Texas State

6-3 · Power #73

final

Final

Coastal Carolina

6-3 · Power #70

▲ winner

Closing spread

TXST -2.5

✓ CCU W

Total

▼ Under · 54 pts

Model before kickoff

TXST 31–29 CCU

✗ TXST (53%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTXST -2.5

Total55

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseTXST -2.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close55

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 54%, covered 46% (48 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTXST -2.5

Total55

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TXST as a 2.5-point road favorite at CCU, the favorite won 7, covered 7, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: CCU won 31–23 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 54 points stayed under 55, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.2 against an average line of 2.3; 56.2 points a game (usually 54). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WMU @ TOL 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & rest	-1.5	15–34	L	U54.5
Very close	MRSH @ FAU 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & situation	-1.5	28–13	W	U57.75
Very close	NEV @ CSU 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3	52–10	W	O57.75
Very close	AFA @ NEV 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & spread	-1.75	41–39	W	O54.25
Very close	ORST @ CAL 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2	25–39	L	O56.5
Very close	UTSA @ UAB 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	44–38	W	O53.25
Very close	MSU @ PUR 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	29–40	L	O53.5
Very close	CMU @ BALL 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	37–17	W	U57
Very close	FRES @ WYO 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	17–0	W	U53.5
Very close	UL @ UAB 2020 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & season form	-2.5	24–20	W	U50.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TXST WLLLW	5-4	56%	3-1	3-2
CCU LWWWW	7-2	78%	3-1	4-1

Venue/role: TXST away, as favorite; CCU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TXST OUUUO	3-5	38%	6-3
CCU UUUUO	2-6	25%	6-3

Stayed under: it needed 18 in the 4th quarter and got 16. 52% of games with totals 51–59 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TXSTlast 9	6-3 67%	5-4 56%	3-5 38%
CCUlast 9	6-3 67%	7-2 78%	2-6 25%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TXST+3.4 →−0.5▼ 3.9#67

CCU−2.7 →+0.2▲ 2.9#60

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

TXST

Longer bar = better

CCU

#19

Offense

◀ TXST better

#52

#66

Defense

Even

#60

−0.4 #111

Turnovers

CCU better ▶

+0.6 #30

73 plays #15

Pace

◀ TXST faster

69 plays #45

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TXST has the ball

Advantage: TXST offense

	TXST off	CCU def	Edge
Points / game	36.2 #18	21.0 #36	Even
Yards / play	6.63 #19	5.74 #82	TXST
PPA / play	+0.23 #27	+0.06 #46	Even
Success rate	50% #10	43% #76	TXST

When CCU has the ball

Even matchup

	CCU off	TXST def	Edge
Points / game	30.0 #55	28.2 #92	CCU
Yards / play	6.43 #31	5.71 #79	CCU
PPA / play	+0.17 #47	+0.06 #44	Even
Success rate	42% #74	40% #49	TXST

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

TXST scoring against the CCU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TXST scored	10.0 #9	12.9 #8	22.9 #7	6.1 #70	7.2 #58	13.3 #62
CCU allowed	3.0 #16	6.7 #54	9.7 #30	6.1 #74	5.2 #40	11.3 #53

CCU scoring against the TXST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CCU scored	7.2 #42	8.9 #52	16.1 #41	7.7 #36	6.2 #85	13.9 #53
TXST allowed	5.8 #81	6.2 #41	12.0 #56	6.1 #74	10.1 #127	16.2 #111

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.