App State @ Georgia State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2023)

Sat, Nov 11, 2023, 2:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Georgia State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff53°F12 mphgusts 21DryWeather watch ›

App State

5-4 · Power #61

▲ winner

Final

Georgia State

6-3 · Power #91

final

Closing spread

GAST -3

✓ APP W

Total

62.5

▼ Under · 56 pts

Model before kickoff

APP 28–31 GAST

✗ GAST (58%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseGAST -3

Total62.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseGAST -3

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close62.5

Line context

Home favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 56%, covered 47% (77 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseGAST -3

Total62.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like GAST as a 3-point home favorite against APP, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: APP won 42–14 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 56 points stayed under 62.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 9.8 against an average line of 3.7; 64.8 points a game (usually 53.9). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MEM vs ECU 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-4	29–30	L	O58.75
Very close	SJSU vs USU 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-4	42–21	W	U65
Very close	UL vs GAST 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	17–20	L	U62
Very close	SMU vs HOU 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	77–63	W	O66
Very close	UL vs GASO 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & spread	-3.5	36–17	W	U63
Very close	WMU vs SJSU 2021 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	23–3	W	U61.75
Very close	ECU vs MEM 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & rest	-5.5	47–45	L	O62.5
Very close	TTU vs KU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	43–28	W	O63.5
Very close	APP vs CCU 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar season form & spread	-4.5	24–27	L	U59
Very close	TULN vs MEM 2020 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	35–21	W	U64

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
APP LLLLW	3-5-1	38%	1-2-1	1-0-1
GAST LWWLL	5-4	56%	2-3	3-2

Venue/role: APP away, as underdog; GAST home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
APP OUUOU	5-4	56%	5-4
GAST UOUOO	5-4	56%	6-3

Stayed under: it needed 35 in the 4th quarter and got 28. 43% of games with totals 58.5–66.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
APPlast 9	5-4 56%	3-5-1 38%	5-4 56%
GASTlast 9	6-3 67%	5-4 56%	5-4 56%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

APP−1.3 →−3.1▼ 1.8#80

GAST−3.6 →−3.6–#82

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

APP

Longer bar = better

GAST

#36

Offense

◀ APP better

#58

#105

Defense

GAST better ▶

#81

+0.1 #61

Turnovers

GAST better ▶

+0.3 #40

72 plays #23

Pace

◀ APP faster

66 plays #80

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When APP has the ball

Advantage: APP offense

	APP off	GAST def	Edge
Points / game	34.0 #27	27.3 #82	APP
Yards / play	6.24 #38	5.97 #101	APP
PPA / play	+0.21 #36	+0.14 #87	APP
Success rate	45% #42	41% #55	Even

When GAST has the ball

Advantage: GAST offense

	GAST off	APP def	Edge
Points / game	28.6 #64	28.4 #95	GAST
Yards / play	6.01 #53	6.17 #116	GAST
PPA / play	+0.16 #56	+0.17 #106	GAST
Success rate	43% #57	44% #104	GAST

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

APP scoring against the GAST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
APP scored	5.7 #73	9.8 #35	15.4 #55	9.6 #10	8.2 #34	17.8 #12
GAST allowed	3.3 #23	7.6 #80	10.9 #43	9.9 #131	6.6 #72	16.4 #115

GAST scoring against the APP defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GAST scored	7.0 #45	9.3 #42	16.3 #39	6.6 #60	5.7 #96	12.2 #80
APP allowed	4.7 #48	10.6 #120	15.2 #100	7.3 #106	4.4 #21	11.8 #60

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.