App State @ James Madison: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2023)

Sat, Nov 18, 2023, 2:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at James Madison · Conference game

Weather at kickoff56°F9 mphgusts 24DryWeather watch ›

App State

6-4 · Power #61

▲ winner

Final

James Madison

10-0 · Power #28

final

Closing spread

JMU -10

✓ APP W

Total

56.5

▼ Under · 49 pts

Model before kickoff

APP 22–32 JMU

✗ JMU (77%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseJMU -10

Total56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseJMU -10

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close56.5

Line context

Home favorites of 9–11 since 2023: won 85%, covered 44% (41 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseJMU -10

Total56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like JMU as a 10-point home favorite against APP, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: APP won 26–23 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 49 points stayed under 56.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 74%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 8.2 against an average line of 10.2; 64 points a game (usually 54.8). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	HOU vs MEM 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-9.5	31–13	W	U59.25
Very close	USA vs UL 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & season form	-11.5	20–33	L	U55
Very close	BAY vs KU 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & spread	-10.5	35–23	W	O56.5
Very close	MIA vs DUKE 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & rest	-10	21–45	L	O59
Very close	JMU vs GAST 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & situation	-10	42–40	L	O52
Very close	OKST vs TCU 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-11	63–17	W	O54
Very close	FRES vs UNLV 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & spread	-10.5	31–24	L	U56
Very close	TOL vs EMU 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & spread	-9.25	49–52	L	O54.5
Very close	WSU vs ASU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-9.5	28–18	W	U59.5
Very close	UAB vs MTSU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & rest	-10	41–14	W	O53

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
APP LLLWW	4-5-1	44%	2-2-1	2-0-1
JMU WWLWW	7-3	70%	3-2	6-3

Venue/role: APP away, as underdog; JMU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
APP UUOUU	5-5	50%	6-4
JMU UUOOO	6-4	60%	10-0

Stayed under: it needed 42 in the 4th quarter and got 34. 49% of games with totals 52.5–60.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
APP	6-4 60%	4-5-1 44%	5-5 50%
JMU	10-0 100%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

APP 7–3 JMU APP leads · 10 games since 1980 · APP has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

APP−1.3 →−0.8▲ 0.5#70

JMU+5.1 →+7.5▲ 2.4#28

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

APP

Longer bar = better

JMU

#29

Offense

Even

#32

#80

Defense

JMU better ▶

#12

+0.1 #60

Turnovers

JMU better ▶

+0.5 #28

71 plays #30

Pace

◀ APP faster

67 plays #62

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When APP has the ball

Even matchup

	APP off	JMU def	Edge
Points / game	34.8 #22	18.2 #19	Even
Yards / play	6.43 #28	4.78 #15	Even
PPA / play	+0.22 #28	−0.04 #13	Even
Success rate	45% #36	32% #2	JMU

When JMU has the ball

Advantage: JMU offense

	JMU off	APP def	Edge
Points / game	34.3 #23	27.0 #77	JMU
Yards / play	6.43 #29	5.84 #86	JMU
PPA / play	+0.18 #46	+0.13 #85	JMU
Success rate	46% #30	42% #71	JMU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

APP scoring against the JMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
APP scored	5.8 #73	10.2 #30	16.0 #45	9.3 #10	8.8 #23	18.1 #13
JMU allowed	1.7 #3	5.7 #31	7.4 #6	6.4 #83	4.4 #19	10.8 #46

JMU scoring against the APP defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JMU scored	8.5 #22	8.8 #51	17.3 #32	9.5 #9	7.5 #53	17.0 #18
APP allowed	4.2 #35	9.5 #102	13.7 #82	6.6 #90	5.4 #41	12.0 #64

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.