Kent State @ Ball State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2023)

Sat, Nov 18, 2023, 2:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Ball State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff48°F6 mphgusts 14DryWeather watch ›

Kent State

1-9 · Power #133

final

Final

Ball State

3-7 · Power #113

▲ winner

Closing spread

BALL -10.5

✓ BALL W

Total

43.5

▼ Under · 37 pts

Model before kickoff

KENT 17–28 BALL

✓ BALL (78%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseBALL -10.5

Total43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseBALL -10.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close43.5

Line context

Home favorites of 8.5–12.5 since 2023: won 84%, covered 46% (56 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseBALL -10.5

Total43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BALL as a 10.5-point home favorite against KENT, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 3 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: BALL won 34–3; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 37 points stayed under 43.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 76%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 8.6 against an average line of 10.5; 36.2 points a game (usually 55). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	SDSU vs NEV 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & season form	-11	0–6	L	U48.5
Very close	TEM vs MASS 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar total & spread	-10	28–0	W	U44
Very close	CMU vs AKR 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & total	-10.5	17–10	L	U44
Very close	ARMY vs MASS 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & season form	-10	14–21	L	U49
Close	NIU vs BALL 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar total & spread	-9.5	17–20	L	U43
Close	EMU vs KENT 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar team ratings & season form	-7.5	28–14	W	O40
Close	MTSU vs USM 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & spread	-12.5	35–10	W	U47.25
Close	UTEP vs RICE 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & spread	-9	38–28	W	O47
Close	USM vs FIU 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & season form	-14.5	37–17	W	O46
Close	CMU vs WMU 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & situation	-10	10–12	L	U48.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
KENT WLLLL	3-7	30%	2-4	2-7
BALL LWWWW	5-4-1	56%	3-1	1-0

Venue/role: KENT away, as underdog; BALL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
KENT –OUOO	5-3	63%	1-9
BALL –UUOU	4-5	44%	3-7

Stayed under: it needed 14 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 50% of games with totals 39.5–47.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
KENT	1-9 10%	3-7 30%	5-3 63%
BALL	3-7 30%	5-4-1 56%	4-5 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

KENT−15.5 →−21.1▼ 5.6#133

BALL−7.6 →−12.7▼ 5.1#123

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

KENT

Longer bar = better

BALL

#133

Offense

BALL better ▶

#115

#120

Defense

BALL better ▶

#85

−0.2 #88

Turnovers

◀ KENT better

−0.5 #111

64 plays #104

Pace

Even

64 plays #102

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When KENT has the ball

Advantage: BALL defense

	KENT off	BALL def	Edge
Points / game	14.6 #136	27.3 #79	BALL
Yards / play	4.38 #134	5.47 #62	BALL
PPA / play	−0.03 #128	+0.17 #104	BALL
Success rate	35% #133	44% #95	BALL

When BALL has the ball

Even matchup

	BALL off	KENT def	Edge
Points / game	17.0 #132	34.4 #123	Even
Yards / play	4.63 #128	5.98 #105	KENT
PPA / play	+0.05 #102	+0.27 #132	BALL
Success rate	39% #99	46% #118	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

KENT scoring against the BALL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KENT scored	4.5 #97	3.7 #131	8.2 #128	4.4 #105	2.0 #132	6.4 #130
BALL allowed	4.0 #30	11.2 #127	15.2 #98	6.6 #90	5.5 #46	12.1 #66

BALL scoring against the KENT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BALL scored	2.7 #127	4.0 #130	6.7 #133	3.5 #118	6.8 #67	10.3 #106
KENT allowed	8.8 #123	9.0 #96	17.8 #119	6.9 #99	9.7 #122	16.6 #119

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.