Boston College @ Pittsburgh: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2023)

Thu, Nov 16, 2023, 7:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Pittsburgh · Conference game

Weather at kickoff50°F6 mphDryWeather watch ›

Boston College

6-4 · Power #75

final

Final

Pittsburgh

2-8 · Power #77

▲ winner

Closing spread

PITT -2.5

✓ PITT W

Total

46.5

▼ Under · 40 pts

Model before kickoff

BC 22–24 PITT

✓ PITT (57%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

ClosePITT -2.5

Total46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

ClosePITT -2.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close46.5

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 57%, covered 49% (79 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

ClosePITT -2.5

Total46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like PITT as a 2.5-point home favorite against BC, the favorite won 3, covered 2, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: PITT won 24–16; the favorite covered, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 40 points stayed under 46.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 8 against an average line of 2.2; 43.2 points a game (usually 54). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	VT vs WAKE 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-1.5	30–13	W	U48.5
Very close	GT vs MIA 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & situation	-2	14–35	L	O43.5
Very close	VT vs SYR 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & spread	-3.5	36–41	L	O45.5
Very close	M-OH vs BALL 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	18–17	L	U45
Very close	SYR vs BC 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & situation	-0.5	10–17	L	U47.5
Very close	USM vs GAST 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & situation	-2	14–42	L	O48
Very close	FAU vs MTSU 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	17–27	L	U49.5
Very close	ILL vs NEB 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	7–20	L	U42
Very close	UVA vs LOU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & spread	-1.5	17–34	L	O47.5
Very close	AUB vs TA&M 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar season form & spread	-1.5	13–10	W	U48.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BC WWLWL	4-6	40%	3-1	3-2
PITT WLLWL	3-7	30%	3-2	1-4

Venue/role: BC away, as underdog; PITT home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BC –OUUO	6-2-1	75%	6-4
PITT OUOUO	7-3	70%	2-8

Stayed under: it needed 17 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 54% of games with totals 42.5–50.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BC	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	6-2-1 75%
PITT	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BC−0.4 →−2.1▼ 1.7#74

PITT+3.7 →−3.1▼ 6.8#79

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

Longer bar = better

PITT

#71

Offense

◀ BC better

#118

#106

Defense

PITT better ▶

#54

+0.1 #60

Turnovers

◀ BC better

−0.7 #126

73 plays #14

Pace

◀ BC faster

60 plays #128

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BC has the ball

Even matchup

	BC off	PITT def	Edge
Points / game	26.4 #72	28.2 #88	Even
Yards / play	5.44 #83	5.49 #62	PITT
PPA / play	+0.16 #55	+0.02 #26	PITT
Success rate	42% #75	39% #41	PITT

When PITT has the ball

Even matchup

	PITT off	BC def	Edge
Points / game	19.9 #119	28.5 #92	BC
Yards / play	5.20 #100	6.38 #124	PITT
PPA / play	−0.09 #136	+0.18 #108	BC
Success rate	38% #116	44% #99	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

BC scoring against the PITT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BC scored	4.7 #92	6.9 #88	11.6 #94	5.9 #70	8.6 #26	14.5 #45
PITT allowed	4.5 #44	9.3 #98	13.8 #83	9.9 #132	4.5 #23	14.4 #96

PITT scoring against the BC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PITT scored	4.8 #86	5.8 #108	10.6 #108	4.8 #98	4.5 #118	9.3 #118
BC allowed	5.5 #72	10.4 #118	15.9 #104	7.6 #113	4.4 #19	12.0 #65

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.