Pittsburgh @ Duke: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2023)

Sat, Nov 25, 2023, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Duke · Conference game

Weather at kickoff46°F8 mphgusts 21DryWeather watch ›

Pittsburgh

3-8 · Power #77

final

Final

Duke

6-5 · Power #37

▲ winner

Closing spread

DUKE -4.5

✓ DUKE W

Total

41.5

▲ Over · 49 pts

Model before kickoff

PITT 18–24 DUKE

✓ DUKE (67%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseDUKE -4.5

Total41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseDUKE -4.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close41.5

Line context

Home favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 62%, covered 45% (60 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseDUKE -4.5

Total41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DUKE as a 4.5-point home favorite against PITT, the favorite won 8, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: DUKE won 30–19; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 49 points went over 41.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.3 against an average line of 5.3; 48.7 points a game (usually 53.7). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	DUKE vs WAKE 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & situation	-6.5	24–21	L	O41
Very close	RUTG vs MSU 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & total	-4.5	27–24	L	O39.5
Very close	SC vs MIZ 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	10–23	L	U45.25
Very close	ILL vs IU 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & situation	-4.5	48–45	L	O43.5
Very close	CIN vs ISU 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & total	-5	10–30	L	U42.5
Very close	LOU vs NCST 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & total	-4	25–10	W	U43
Very close	MINN vs MSU 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & rest	-6.5	27–12	W	U41
Very close	BAY vs KSU 2020 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & spread	-5.5	32–31	L	O44.5
Very close	AUB vs MSST 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & rest	-6.5	27–13	W	P40
Very close	BOIS vs SDSU 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & situation	-6	35–13	W	O38

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PITT LLWLW	4-7	36%	0-4	2-3
DUKE LLLWL	5-6	45%	3-3	3-3

Venue/role: PITT away, as underdog; DUKE home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
PITT UOUOU	7-4	64%	3-8
DUKE OUOOO	6-3-1	67%	6-5

Went over in Q4. Of 66 earlier overs in games with totals 37.5–45.5, 29% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PITT	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	6-4 60%
DUKE	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	6-3-1 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

PITT+3.7 →−2.8▼ 6.5#80

DUKE+4.1 →+5.9▲ 1.8#35

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

PITT

Longer bar = better

DUKE

#113

Offense

DUKE better ▶

#61

#52

Defense

Even

#56

−0.5 #113

Turnovers

DUKE better ▶

+0.1 #62

59 plays #131

Pace

Even

61 plays #125

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When PITT has the ball

Advantage: DUKE defense

	PITT off	DUKE def	Edge
Points / game	20.3 #117	19.8 #27	DUKE
Yards / play	5.40 #86	5.20 #38	DUKE
PPA / play	−0.06 #132	+0.08 #53	DUKE
Success rate	38% #116	45% #106	Even

When DUKE has the ball

Even matchup

	DUKE off	PITT def	Edge
Points / game	27.5 #70	27.1 #79	Even
Yards / play	5.78 #61	5.41 #62	Even
PPA / play	+0.16 #56	+0.02 #24	PITT
Success rate	43% #55	40% #43	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

PITT scoring against the DUKE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PITT scored	4.6 #93	5.9 #106	10.5 #105	5.0 #93	4.7 #112	9.7 #111
DUKE allowed	5.6 #77	4.2 #12	9.8 #27	3.0 #9	6.0 #58	9.0 #21

DUKE scoring against the PITT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DUKE scored	3.7 #111	9.5 #41	13.3 #77	6.0 #71	7.5 #52	13.5 #55
PITT allowed	4.4 #38	8.7 #91	13.1 #71	9.6 #131	4.4 #17	14.0 #93

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.