Wake Forest @ Syracuse: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2023)

Sat, Nov 25, 2023, 2:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Syracuse · Conference game

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Wake Forest

4-7 · Power #81

final

Final

Syracuse

5-6 · Power #82

▲ winner

Closing spread

SYR -1.5

✓ SYR W

Total

43.5

▲ Over · 66 pts

Model before kickoff

WAKE 23–25 SYR

✓ SYR (56%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseSYR -1.5

Total43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseSYR -1.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close43.5

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 49%, covered 47% (47 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseSYR -1.5

Total43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SYR as a 1.5-point home favorite against WAKE, the favorite won 3, covered 2, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: SYR won 35–31; the favorite covered, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 66 points went over 43.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 3.7 against an average line of 2.4; 48.1 points a game (usually 54.2). Of the 3 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MINN vs ILL 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & spread	-2	26–27	L	O44
Very close	SYR vs BC 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & spread	-0.5	10–17	L	U47.5
Very close	PITT vs BC 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & situation	-1.75	24–16	W	U46.75
Very close	ILL vs NEB 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & rest	-3	7–20	L	U42
Very close	VT vs BC 2022 · Week 2 · very close · similar rest & total	-3	27–10	W	U45
Very close	NIU vs M-OH 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & rest	-0.5	23–29	L	O44
Very close	ILL vs IU 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & rest	-4.5	48–45	L	O43.5
Very close	SC vs MIZ 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & total	-3.5	10–23	L	U45.25
Very close	VT vs NCSU 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	28–35	L	O41
Very close	CLT vs WKU 2020 · Week 14 · very close · similar season form & spread	-2.5	19–37	L	O46.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WAKE WLWLL	4-7	36%	2-3	3-4
SYR LLLWL	4-6-1	40%	2-2-1	3-0-1

Venue/role: WAKE away, as underdog; SYR home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WAKE UOOUO	5-5	50%	4-7
SYR UOUOO	4-6	40%	5-6

Went over in Q4. Of 91 earlier overs in games with totals 39.5–47.5, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WAKE	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	4-5 44%
SYR	4-6 40%	3-6-1 33%	3-6 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WAKE+1.2 →−3.9▼ 5.1#83

SYR+6.3 →−1.2▼ 7.5#68

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

WAKE

Longer bar = better

SYR

#115

Offense

SYR better ▶

#88

#68

Defense

SYR better ▶

#50

−0.5 #117

Turnovers

SYR better ▶

+0.1 #59

67 plays #66

Pace

◀ WAKE faster

64 plays #99

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WAKE has the ball

Advantage: SYR defense

	WAKE off	SYR def	Edge
Points / game	19.3 #121	23.1 #50	SYR
Yards / play	4.82 #122	5.21 #39	SYR
PPA / play	−0.01 #122	+0.05 #37	SYR
Success rate	40% #94	42% #73	SYR

When SYR has the ball

Even matchup

	SYR off	WAKE def	Edge
Points / game	24.6 #84	26.5 #68	Even
Yards / play	5.44 #83	5.80 #87	Even
PPA / play	+0.07 #90	+0.11 #77	Even
Success rate	40% #96	40% #41	WAKE

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

WAKE scoring against the SYR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WAKE scored	2.4 #130	6.6 #90	9.0 #121	4.3 #105	6.0 #86	10.3 #104
SYR allowed	6.5 #89	8.0 #79	14.5 #91	3.5 #17	5.1 #37	8.6 #16

SYR scoring against the WAKE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SYR scored	6.5 #54	5.9 #107	12.4 #88	7.7 #35	4.5 #118	12.3 #75
WAKE allowed	3.5 #22	11.8 #130	15.3 #100	3.7 #21	7.5 #94	11.2 #50

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.