Bowling Green @ Western Michigan: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2023)

Tue, Nov 21, 2023, 7:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Western Michigan · Conference game

Weather at kickoff40°F10 mphgusts 20DryWeather watch ›

Bowling Green

6-5 · Power #80

▲ winner

Final

Western Michigan

4-7 · Power #120

final

Closing spread

BGSU -2.5

✓ BGSU W

Total

51.5

▼ Under · 44 pts

Model before kickoff

BGSU 27–25 WMU

✓ BGSU (58%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseBGSU -2.5

Total51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseBGSU -2.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close51.5

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 48%, covered 41% (56 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseBGSU -2.5

Total51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BGSU as a 2.5-point road favorite at WMU, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: BGSU won 34–10; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 44 points stayed under 51.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.5 against an average line of 3; 57.9 points a game (usually 53.9). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	USM @ ULM 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	20–10	W	U50
Very close	CSU @ HAW 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	45–50	L	O53.75
Very close	BUFF @ BGSU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2	38–7	W	U55.75
Very close	TROY @ USA 2020 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & situation	-4	29–0	W	U54
Very close	RICE @ LT 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	42–41	L	O57
Very close	LT @ UTSA 2020 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	26–27	L	U53.5
Very close	FAU @ MTSU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & situation	-5.5	21–49	L	O51
Very close	CMU @ M-OH 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-1.75	17–28	L	U56
Very close	ODU @ FIU 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3	47–24	W	O50
Very close	OHIO @ M-OH 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	37–21	W	O52

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BGSU WWLWW	8-3	73%	5-1	3-1
WMU LWWWL	7-4	64%	3-1	3-4

Venue/role: BGSU away, as favorite; WMU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BGSU UOOOO	6-3	67%	6-5
WMU OUOOU	7-4	64%	4-7

Stayed under: it needed 15 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 58% of games with totals 47.5–55.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BGSU	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	6-3 67%
WMU	3-7 30%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BGSU−3.0 →−4.8▼ 1.8#88

WMU−3.0 →−10.2▼ 7.2#111

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

BGSU

Longer bar = better

WMU

#86

Offense

Even

#90

#56

Defense

◀ BGSU better

#102

+0.6 #23

Turnovers

Even

+0.5 #25

61 plays #125

Pace

WMU faster ▶

73 plays #11

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BGSU has the ball

Even matchup

	BGSU off	WMU def	Edge
Points / game	25.6 #79	31.5 #112	BGSU
Yards / play	5.33 #91	6.08 #108	Even
PPA / play	+0.07 #89	+0.15 #97	Even
Success rate	41% #83	43% #92	Even

When WMU has the ball

Advantage: BGSU defense

	WMU off	BGSU def	Edge
Points / game	24.9 #81	24.7 #61	Even
Yards / play	5.13 #107	5.43 #61	BGSU
PPA / play	+0.08 #87	+0.04 #35	BGSU
Success rate	41% #86	42% #67	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

BGSU scoring against the WMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BGSU scored	5.6 #72	9.4 #41	15.0 #56	5.6 #80	5.0 #106	10.6 #105
WMU allowed	6.2 #85	8.8 #92	15.0 #95	9.4 #128	7.2 #88	16.5 #118

WMU scoring against the BGSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WMU scored	5.4 #79	8.2 #63	13.5 #75	4.1 #111	7.3 #57	11.4 #93
BGSU allowed	7.8 #115	5.5 #28	13.3 #73	6.8 #95	4.6 #23	11.5 #57

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.