Miami @ Boston College: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2023)

Fri, Nov 24, 2023, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Boston College · Conference game

Weather at kickoff47°F11 mphgusts 22DryWeather watch ›

Miami

6-5 · Power #25

▲ winner

Final

Boston College

6-5 · Power #75

final

Closing spread

MIA -10

✓ MIA W

Total

▲ Over · 65 pts

Model before kickoff

MIA 30–20 BC

✓ MIA (76%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMIA -10

Total50

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseMIA -10

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close50

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMIA -10

Total50

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MIA as a 10-point road favorite at BC, the favorite won 9, covered 7, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: MIA won 45–20; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 65 points went over 50, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 74%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 21.5 against an average line of 9.3; 43.9 points a game (usually 54.7). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UTAH @ STAN 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & season form	-10.25	52–7	W	O51.75
Very close	PUR @ IU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-10	30–16	W	U53
Very close	TULN @ FAU 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & season form	-9	24–8	W	U47
Very close	APP @ TROY 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & total	-10	45–7	W	O51.5
Very close	SYR @ BC 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & spread	-10.5	32–23	L	O47
Very close	MIA @ VT 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & rest	-9	20–14	L	U48.25
Very close	ORST @ ASU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & team ratings	-7.5	31–7	W	U53.5
Very close	WIS @ IU 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & situation	-9.5	14–20	L	U45
Very close	WISC @ NU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & rest	-10	42–7	W	O44.5
Very close	JMU @ ODU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & season form	-7.5	37–3	W	U48

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIA WLLWL	5-6	45%	2-2	2-4
BC WLWLL	4-7	36%	1-5	3-3

Venue/role: MIA away, as favorite; BC home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIA OOUUO	6-3	67%	6-5
BC OUUOU	6-3-1	67%	6-5

Went over in Q4. Of 156 earlier overs in games with totals 46–54, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIA	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	6-3 67%
BC	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	5-3-1 63%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MIA+11.1 →+8.4▼ 2.7#26

BC−0.4 →−2.2▼ 1.8#74

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

MIA

Longer bar = better

#46

Offense

◀ MIA better

#75

#41

Defense

◀ MIA better

#105

−0.4 #104

Turnovers

BC better ▶

−0.1 #79

67 plays #64

Pace

BC faster ▶

73 plays #16

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MIA has the ball

Advantage: MIA offense

	MIA off	BC def	Edge
Points / game	30.9 #44	28.1 #92	MIA
Yards / play	6.46 #28	6.49 #128	MIA
PPA / play	+0.17 #52	+0.19 #113	MIA
Success rate	43% #61	43% #88	MIA

When BC has the ball

Advantage: MIA defense

	BC off	MIA def	Edge
Points / game	25.5 #80	22.3 #46	MIA
Yards / play	5.38 #88	5.16 #34	MIA
PPA / play	+0.15 #61	+0.08 #56	Even
Success rate	42% #72	38% #26	MIA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

MIA scoring against the BC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIA scored	5.6 #73	9.1 #48	14.7 #63	6.4 #64	8.3 #30	14.6 #43
BC allowed	5.3 #67	10.1 #115	15.4 #99	7.5 #111	4.6 #23	12.2 #70

BC scoring against the MIA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BC scored	4.5 #95	6.5 #92	11.1 #100	6.0 #69	8.1 #32	14.1 #51
MIA allowed	4.7 #48	4.2 #11	8.9 #22	7.0 #99	5.8 #51	12.8 #78

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.