Rutgers vs Miami: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl, 2023)

Thu, Dec 28, 2023, 2:15 PM ESTBad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl · Neutral site

Weather at kickoff52°F7 mphgusts 13Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Rutgers

6-6 · Power #51

▲ winner

Final

Miami

7-5 · Power #25

final

Closing spread

RUTG -2.5

✓ RUTG W

Total

41.5

▲ Over · 55 pts

Model before kickoff

RUTG 23–22 MIA

✓ RUTG (51%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseRUTG -2.5

Total41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseRUTG -2.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close41.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseRUTG -2.5

Total41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like RUTG as a 2.5-point neutral-site favorite against MIA, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: RUTG won 31–24; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 55 points went over 41.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 2.3 against an average line of 2.4; 39.7 points a game (usually 54). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NCST vs MD 2022 · Postseason · very close · similar spread & situation	-2	12–16	L	U45.25
Close	CLEM vs ISU 2021 · Postseason · close · similar situation & spread	-1.75	20–13	W	U45
Close	NW vs AUB 2020 · Postseason · close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	35–19	W	O45
Close	SDSU vs UTSA 2021 · Postseason · close · similar spread & situation	-3	38–24	W	O48
Close	AFA vs ARMY 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	14–21	L	U37.5
Close	LOU vs CIN 2022 · Postseason · close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	24–7	W	U38.5
Close	UK vs IOWA 2021 · Postseason · close · similar spread & situation	-3	20–17	P	U43.5
Close	MSST vs TLSA 2020 · Postseason · close · similar situation & spread	-1	28–26	W	O45.5
Close	PITT vs SYR 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar spread	-3	13–28	L	O37.75
Close	LOU vs FSU 2023 · Week 14 · close · similar spread & situation	-1.5	6–16	L	U45.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
RUTG WP–LL	6-3-2	67%	—	5-1
MIA LLWLW	6-6	50%	—	3-1

Venue/role: RUTG neutral, as favorite; MIA neutral, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
RUTG OO–UO	6-4	60%	6-6
MIA OUUOO	7-3	70%	7-5

Went over in Q4. Of 76 earlier overs in games with totals 37.5–45.5, 30% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
RUTG	4-6 40%	4-3-2 57%	6-2 75%
MIA	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	6-3 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

RUTG+1.6 →+1.6–#56

MIA+11.1 →+9.4▼ 1.7#23

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW15

RUTG

Longer bar = better

MIA

#105

Offense

MIA better ▶

#38

#47

Defense

Even

#41

+0.3 #37

Turnovers

◀ RUTG better

−0.3 #97

63 plays #112

Pace

MIA faster ▶

68 plays #53

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When RUTG has the ball

Advantage: MIA defense

	RUTG off	MIA def	Edge
Points / game	22.6 #105	22.1 #39	MIA
Yards / play	4.91 #120	5.20 #39	MIA
PPA / play	+0.07 #92	+0.08 #58	MIA
Success rate	40% #102	38% #28	MIA

When MIA has the ball

Even matchup

	MIA off	RUTG def	Edge
Points / game	32.1 #35	21.0 #30	Even
Yards / play	6.51 #23	4.99 #24	Even
PPA / play	+0.20 #38	+0.03 #26	Even
Success rate	43% #55	45% #106	MIA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

RUTG scoring against the MIA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
RUTG scored	4.5 #99	6.9 #86	11.4 #97	2.8 #125	8.3 #30	11.2 #93
MIA allowed	4.9 #51	3.8 #8	8.8 #14	7.0 #99	5.8 #48	12.8 #73

MIA scoring against the RUTG defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIA scored	5.8 #71	10.1 #32	15.8 #50	6.4 #64	8.4 #27	14.8 #39
RUTG allowed	4.3 #34	5.3 #25	9.7 #24	4.3 #34	7.1 #83	11.3 #50

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.