NC State vs Kansas State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Pop-Tarts Bowl, 2023)

Thu, Dec 28, 2023, 5:45 PM ESTPop-Tarts Bowl · Neutral site

Weather at kickoff61°F4 mphDryWeather watch ›

NC State

9-3 · Power #38

final

Final

Kansas State

8-4 · Power #11

▲ winner

Closing spread

KSU -3

✓ KSU W

Total

▼ Under · 47 pts

Model before kickoff

NCSU 23–28 KSU

✓ KSU (63%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseKSU -3

Total49

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseKSU -3

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close49

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseKSU -3

Total49

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like KSU as a 3-point neutral-site favorite against NCSU, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: KSU won 28–19; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 47 points stayed under 49, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 3.1 against an average line of 4.5; 43.3 points a game (usually 53.9). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ND vs SC 2022 · Postseason · very close · similar situation & total	-5	45–38	W	O50.5
Close	ARK vs PSU 2021 · Postseason · close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	24–10	W	U51
Close	MINN vs WVU 2021 · Postseason · close · similar situation & season form	-5.75	18–6	W	U44.75
Close	UK vs IOWA 2021 · Postseason · close · similar spread & situation	-3	20–17	P	U43.5
Close	UK vs NCST 2020 · Postseason · close · similar spread & total	-3	23–21	L	U50.5
Close	BYU vs UAB 2021 · Postseason · close · similar season form & situation	-6	28–31	L	O54.25
Close	MSST vs ILL 2022 · Postseason · close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	19–10	W	U46.5
Close	WISC vs OKST 2022 · Postseason · close · similar situation & spread	-5	24–17	W	U45
Close	BAY vs AFA 2022 · Postseason · close · similar spread	-3.5	15–30	L	O42.25
Close	OKST vs BAY 2021 · Week 14 · close · similar season form	-7	16–21	L	U45

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
NCSU WWWWW	7-5	58%	—	5-2
KSU WPWLL	7-4-1	64%	—	6-4

Venue/role: NCSU neutral, as underdog; KSU neutral, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NCSU UUUOO	3-7	30%	9-3
KSU UOOUO	7-4	64%	8-4

Stayed under: it needed 10 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 56% of games with totals 45–53 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NCSU	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	2-7 22%
KSU	6-4 60%	5-4-1 56%	6-3 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NCSU+5.0 →+5.5▲ 0.5#38

KSU+2.0 →+15.1▲ 13.1#12

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW15

NCSU

Longer bar = better

KSU

#90

Offense

KSU better ▶

#26

#29

Defense

Even

#38

+0.8 #9

Turnovers

Even

+0.8 #10

66 plays #72

Pace

KSU faster ▶

74 plays #7

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NCSU has the ball

Advantage: KSU defense

	NCSU off	KSU def	Edge
Points / game	26.8 #71	21.2 #33	KSU
Yards / play	5.23 #101	5.70 #73	KSU
PPA / play	+0.09 #83	+0.02 #20	KSU
Success rate	40% #103	38% #25	KSU

When KSU has the ball

Even matchup

	KSU off	NCSU def	Edge
Points / game	37.8 #10	20.2 #24	Even
Yards / play	6.03 #50	5.33 #51	Even
PPA / play	+0.22 #27	0.00 #16	Even
Success rate	48% #16	38% #23	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

NCSU scoring against the KSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NCSU scored	5.4 #79	9.9 #37	15.3 #56	7.8 #33	3.8 #129	11.5 #89
KSU allowed	5.3 #66	6.8 #45	12.1 #52	4.8 #41	4.1 #9	8.8 #18

KSU scoring against the NCSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KSU scored	8.3 #21	12.3 #9	20.7 #9	8.8 #14	8.3 #30	17.2 #15
NCSU allowed	2.8 #11	5.4 #25	8.3 #10	6.2 #78	5.8 #45	11.9 #62

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.