Arizona vs Oklahoma: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Valero Alamo Bowl, 2023)

Thu, Dec 28, 2023, 9:15 PM ESTValero Alamo Bowl · Neutral site

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Arizona

9-3 · Power #18

▲ winner

Final

Oklahoma

10-2 · Power #9

final

Closing spread

ARIZ -2.5

✓ ARIZ W

Total

▲ Over · 62 pts

Model before kickoff

ARIZ 32–32 OU

✓ ARIZ (51%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseARIZ -2.5

Total60

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseARIZ -2.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close60

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseARIZ -2.5

Total60

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ARIZ as a 2.5-point neutral-site favorite against OU, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: ARIZ won 38–24; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 62 points went over 60, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0 against an average line of 2.5; 54 points a game (usually 54). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CLEM vs TENN 2022 · Postseason · very close · similar total & spread	-4	14–31	L	U61.5
Very close	MSU vs PITT 2021 · Postseason · very close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	31–21	W	U55
Very close	KSU vs TCU 2022 · Week 14 · very close · similar total & season form	-1	31–28	W	U60.5
Close	DUKE vs UCF 2022 · Postseason · close · similar spread & total	-3.25	30–13	W	U62.75
Close	PSU vs UTAH 2022 · Postseason · close · similar spread & season form	-1.5	35–21	W	O55
Close	USA vs WKU 2022 · Postseason · close · similar situation & spread	-3.75	23–44	L	O58
Close	UTAH vs ORE 2021 · Week 14 · close · similar spread & total	-3	38–10	W	U57.5
Close	USC vs UTAH 2022 · Week 14 · close · similar spread & situation	-2.75	24–47	L	O67.75
Loose	MISS vs BAY 2021 · Postseason · loose · similar total & situation	-1	7–21	L	U60
Loose	OKST vs MIAMI 2020 · Postseason · loose · similar spread & total	-1	37–34	W	O63

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
ARIZ WWLWW	10-2	83%	—	4-2
OU LLWLW	8-4	67%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: ARIZ neutral, as favorite; OU neutral, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ARIZ UUOOO	3-8	27%	9-3
OU OUOUO	5-5	50%	10-2

Went over in Q4. Of 93 earlier overs in games with totals 56–64, 22% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ARIZ	8-2 80%	8-2 80%	3-6 33%
OU	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	5-4 56%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ARIZ+1.3 →+10.5▲ 9.2#22

OU+20.5 →+18.7▼ 1.8#7

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW15

ARIZ

Longer bar = better

#13

Offense

Even

#48

Defense

Even

#38

0.0 #74

Turnovers

OU better ▶

+0.9 #7

67 plays #70

Pace

OU faster ▶

75 plays #6

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ARIZ has the ball

Advantage: ARIZ offense

	ARIZ off	OU def	Edge
Points / game	34.3 #23	22.3 #39	Even
Yards / play	6.82 #10	5.38 #56	ARIZ
PPA / play	+0.29 #12	+0.03 #23	Even
Success rate	52% #6	39% #32	ARIZ

When OU has the ball

Advantage: OU offense

	OU off	ARIZ def	Edge
Points / game	43.2 #3	20.8 #26	OU
Yards / play	6.74 #12	5.28 #45	OU
PPA / play	+0.30 #11	+0.08 #51	OU
Success rate	51% #7	42% #68	OU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

ARIZ scoring against the OU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARIZ scored	6.3 #58	10.1 #32	16.3 #42	7.7 #35	9.3 #17	16.9 #18
OU allowed	5.3 #67	7.6 #68	12.9 #65	4.9 #44	4.4 #16	9.3 #23

OU scoring against the ARIZ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OU scored	12.3 #2	13.5 #4	25.8 #2	8.9 #12	8.5 #24	17.4 #13
ARIZ allowed	5.4 #70	5.1 #19	10.5 #30	4.1 #30	4.4 #16	8.5 #16

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.