Oregon State vs Notre Dame: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl, 2023)

Fri, Dec 29, 2023, 2:00 PM ESTTony the Tiger Sun Bowl · Neutral site

Weather at kickoff49°F3 mphgusts 9DryWeather watch ›

Oregon State

8-4 · Power #20

final

Final

Notre Dame

9-3 · Power #6

▲ winner

Closing spread

ND -5.5

✓ ND W

Total

40.5

▲ Over · 48 pts

Model before kickoff

ORST 24–30 ND

✓ ND (66%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseND -5.5

Total40.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseND -5.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close40.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseND -5.5

Total40.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ND as a 5.5-point neutral-site favorite against ORST, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: ND won 40–8; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 48 points went over 40.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 62%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 1.7 against an average line of 5.3; 36.9 points a game (usually 53.7). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	OKST vs BAY 2021 · Week 14 · very close · similar season form & spread	-7	16–21	L	U45
Close	WISC vs ASU 2021 · Postseason · close · similar total & situation	-7.75	20–13	L	U42.5
Close	UGA vs MICH 2021 · Postseason · close · similar situation & spread	-7.5	34–11	W	U46
Close	TA&M vs ARK 2021 · Week 4 · close · similar spread	-4.5	10–20	L	U47
Close	WISC vs ND 2021 · Week 4 · close · similar spread	-6	13–41	L	O44
Close	LOU vs CIN 2022 · Postseason · close · similar total & situation	-2.5	24–7	W	U38.5
Close	MINN vs WVU 2021 · Postseason · close · similar spread & situation	-5.75	18–6	W	U44.75
Close	BAY vs AFA 2022 · Postseason · close · similar total & spread	-3.5	15–30	L	O42.25
Loose	MSST vs ILL 2022 · Postseason · loose · similar situation & spread	-3.5	19–10	W	U46.5
Loose	WISC vs OKST 2022 · Postseason · loose · similar spread & situation	-5	24–17	W	U45

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
ORST LLWLL	6-6	50%	—	0-1
ND WWLWW	8-3-1	73%	1-0	8-3

Venue/role: ORST neutral, as underdog; ND neutral, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ORST UUOUU	4-6	40%	8-4
ND OOOOO	8-2	80%	9-3

Went over in Q4. Of 64 earlier overs in games with totals 36.5–44.5, 30% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ORST	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	3-6 33%
ND	7-3 70%	6-3-1 67%	7-2 78%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ORST+11.2 →+12.0▲ 0.8#18

ND+9.1 →+17.9▲ 8.8#10

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW15

ORST

Longer bar = better

#18

Offense

Even

#10

#47

Defense

ND better ▶

+0.6 #22

Turnovers

Even

+0.5 #25

65 plays #84

Pace

◀ ORST faster

62 plays #121

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ORST has the ball

Even matchup

	ORST off	ND def	Edge
Points / game	33.8 #26	16.6 #8	Even
Yards / play	6.56 #18	4.43 #6	Even
PPA / play	+0.27 #16	−0.07 #5	Even
Success rate	49% #10	35% #8	Even

When ND has the ball

Advantage: ND offense

	ND off	ORST def	Edge
Points / game	39.1 #7	21.5 #34	ND
Yards / play	6.95 #9	5.29 #47	ND
PPA / play	+0.28 #13	+0.04 #27	Even
Success rate	48% #12	43% #81	ND

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

ORST scoring against the ND defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ORST scored	7.8 #29	9.8 #39	17.6 #28	7.7 #36	8.6 #20	16.3 #27
ND allowed	3.6 #17	3.7 #6	7.3 #6	4.3 #33	5.1 #30	9.3 #23

ND scoring against the ORST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ND scored	6.3 #57	11.4 #15	17.8 #23	11.4 #1	9.9 #10	21.3 #3
ORST allowed	3.3 #14	7.3 #60	10.6 #30	3.7 #18	7.3 #87	10.9 #36

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.