Liberty vs Oregon: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Vrbo Fiesta Bowl, 2023)

Mon, Jan 1, 2024, 1:00 PM ESTVrbo Fiesta Bowl · Neutral site

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Liberty

13-0 · Power #32

final

Final

Oregon

11-2 · Power #2

▲ winner

Closing spread

ORE -18.5

✓ ORE W

Total

▼ Under · 51 pts

Model before kickoff

LIB 25–43 ORE

✓ ORE (90%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseORE -18.5

Total71

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseORE -18.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close71

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseORE -18.5

Total71

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 3 games most like ORE as an 18.5-point neutral-site favorite against LIB, the favorite won 2, covered 0, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: ORE won 45–6; the favorite covered, as in 0 of the 3 similar games. 51 points stayed under 71, as in 1 of 3.

Favorite won

2 of 367%

Normal range · usually 90%

Favorite covered

0 of 30%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

2 of 367%

Normal range · usually 47%

Only 3 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 0 against an average line of 16.5; 70 points a game (usually 55.3). When games like this go over ›

All 3 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	ALA vs ND 2020 · Postseason · close · similar spread & situation	-18.5	31–14	L	U65.5
Loose	ALA vs FLA 2020 · Week 16 · loose · similar situation & season form	-16.5	52–46	L	O74.5
Loose	UNC vs GT 2021 · Week 4 · loose	-14.5	22–45	L	O65.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
LIB WWLLW	8-5	62%	—	—
ORE WLWWL	10-3	77%	0-1	9-3

Venue/role: LIB neutral, as underdog; ORE neutral, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LIB OUOOO	7-4	64%	13-0
ORE OUOUP	5-7-1	42%	11-2

Stayed under: it needed 28 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 48% of games with totals 67–75 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LIB	10-0 100%	6-4 60%	6-3 67%
ORE	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	4-5-1 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LIB+3.0 →+7.4▲ 4.4#28

ORE+8.3 →+22.5▲ 14.2#1

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW15

LIB

Longer bar = better

ORE

Offense

Even

#53

Defense

ORE better ▶

#19

+0.7 #14

Turnovers

Even

+0.7 #17

71 plays #29

Pace

◀ LIB faster

68 plays #54

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LIB has the ball

Even matchup

	LIB off	ORE def	Edge
Points / game	40.8 #5	17.3 #10	Even
Yards / play	7.27 #4	4.95 #19	Even
PPA / play	+0.36 #4	+0.02 #18	Even
Success rate	54% #3	38% #30	LIB

When ORE has the ball

Advantage: ORE offense

	ORE off	LIB def	Edge
Points / game	44.2 #2	22.7 #44	ORE
Yards / play	7.79 #2	5.52 #64	ORE
PPA / play	+0.47 #2	+0.05 #35	ORE
Success rate	57% #1	42% #70	ORE

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

LIB scoring against the ORE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LIB scored	11.0 #5	12.7 #7	23.7 #4	9.3 #7	7.8 #40	17.1 #17
ORE allowed	4.9 #52	4.6 #12	9.5 #21	2.5 #7	5.2 #31	7.8 #9

ORE scoring against the LIB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ORE scored	11.8 #2	14.1 #3	25.9 #1	9.7 #5	8.5 #21	18.2 #8
LIB allowed	5.2 #65	6.5 #41	11.8 #44	5.2 #51	5.7 #44	10.9 #40

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.