Iowa vs Tennessee: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Cheez-It Citrus Bowl, 2023)

Mon, Jan 1, 2024, 1:00 PM ESTCheez-It Citrus Bowl · Neutral site

Weather at kickoff65°F9 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

Iowa

10-3 · Power #54

final

Final

Tennessee

8-4 · Power #15

▲ winner

Closing spread

TENN -5

✓ TENN W

Total

▼ Under · 35 pts

Model before kickoff

IOWA 17–23 TENN

✓ TENN (67%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTENN -5

Total37

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseTENN -5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close37

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTENN -5

Total37

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TENN as a 5-point neutral-site favorite against IOWA, the favorite won 6, covered 2, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: TENN won 35–0; the favorite covered, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 35 points stayed under 37, as in 8 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 62%

Favorite covered

2 of 922%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 47%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 1.3 against an average line of 5.6; 33.7 points a game (usually 53.6). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	LOU vs CIN 2022 · Postseason · close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	24–7	W	U38.5
Close	UK vs IOWA 2021 · Postseason · close · similar situation & rest	-3	20–17	P	U43.5
Close	BAY vs AFA 2022 · Postseason · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	15–30	L	O42.25
Close	ARMY vs NAVY 2021 · Week 15 · close · similar rest & total	-7	13–17	L	U35.5
Close	AFA vs ARMY 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar total & rest	-2.5	14–21	L	U37.5
Loose	AFA vs ARMY 2022 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest & season form	-7	13–7	L	U40.5
Loose	WVU vs ARMY 2020 · Postseason · loose · similar situation & rest	-9.75	24–21	L	O40.5
Loose	MINN vs WVU 2021 · Postseason · loose · similar spread & season form	-5.75	18–6	W	U44.75
Loose	WISC vs ASU 2021 · Postseason · loose · similar season form	-7.75	20–13	L	U42.5
Loose	TOL vs M-OH 2023 · Week 14 · loose · similar spread	-7	14–23	L	U43.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
IOWA L–L–L	4-6-1	40%	0-2	1-2
TENN WWLLL	6-6	50%	1-0	6-4

Venue/role: IOWA neutral, as underdog; TENN neutral, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
IOWA U–U–U	2-8	20%	10-3
TENN OOUUO	6-5-1	55%	8-4

Stayed under: it needed 17 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 63% of games with totals 33–41 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
IOWA	7-3 70%	2-5-1 29%	1-6 14%
TENN	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	5-4-1 56%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

IOWA+3.8 →+2.4▼ 1.4#51

TENN+9.7 →+12.0▲ 2.3#17

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW15

IOWA

Longer bar = better

TENN

#135

Offense

TENN better ▶

#25

Defense

◀ IOWA better

#37

−0.3 #100

Turnovers

TENN better ▶

+0.3 #41

59 plays #130

Pace

TENN faster ▶

69 plays #45

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When IOWA has the ball

Advantage: TENN defense

	IOWA off	TENN def	Edge
Points / game	16.6 #133	22.0 #35	TENN
Yards / play	4.04 #136	5.13 #27	TENN
PPA / play	−0.08 #136	+0.08 #53	TENN
Success rate	33% #136	39% #34	TENN

When TENN has the ball

Advantage: IOWA defense

	TENN off	IOWA def	Edge
Points / game	31.5 #38	13.2 #3	IOWA
Yards / play	6.60 #15	3.99 #1	Even
PPA / play	+0.22 #24	−0.09 #3	IOWA
Success rate	46% #24	34% #5	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

IOWA scoring against the TENN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IOWA scored	2.5 #131	5.8 #110	8.2 #128	2.8 #126	5.6 #99	8.4 #125
TENN allowed	3.8 #22	6.9 #49	10.8 #31	6.5 #88	4.8 #23	11.3 #45

TENN scoring against the IOWA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TENN scored	9.2 #14	9.9 #36	19.1 #15	6.6 #61	5.8 #92	12.4 #77
IOWA allowed	2.2 #7	3.3 #4	5.5 #3	3.8 #17	3.9 #9	7.7 #8

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.