Ole Miss vs Penn State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl, 2023)

Sat, Dec 30, 2023, 12:00 PM ESTChick-fil-A Peach Bowl · Neutral site

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Ole Miss

10-2 · Power #16

▲ winner

Final

Penn State

10-2 · Power #5

final

Closing spread

PSU -5.5

✓ MISS W

Total

▲ Over · 63 pts

Model before kickoff

MISS 24–30 PSU

✗ PSU (67%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

ClosePSU -5.5

Total53

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

ClosePSU -5.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close53

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

ClosePSU -5.5

Total53

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like PSU as a 5.5-point neutral-site favorite against MISS, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: MISS won 38–25 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 63 points went over 53, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 62%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 9.3 against an average line of 5.8; 56.5 points a game (usually 53.7). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MICH vs TCU 2022 · Postseason · very close · similar situation & season form	-8	45–51	L	O56
Very close	UGA vs ALA 2023 · Week 14 · very close · similar total & spread	-5	24–27	L	U53.5
Very close	ISU vs ORE 2020 · Postseason · very close · similar situation & spread	-4.5	34–17	W	U57.5
Very close	TA&M vs ARK 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & spread	-6.5	34–22	W	O54
Close	ALA vs KSU 2022 · Postseason · close · similar situation & spread	-7.5	45–20	W	O58
Close	UTAH vs ORE 2021 · Week 14 · close · similar situation	-3	38–10	W	U57.5
Close	OU vs ISU 2020 · Week 16 · close · similar spread & season form	-5.5	27–21	W	U59.5
Close	UGA vs FLA 2020 · Week 10 · close · similar total	-3	28–44	L	O54.5
Close	ORST vs FLA 2022 · Postseason · close · similar situation & total	-7.5	30–3	W	U51.75
Close	UGA vs CIN 2020 · Postseason · close · similar total & situation	-7.5	24–21	L	U53

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
MISS WPLLP	6-4-2	60%	—	1-2
PSU LWLWW	9-3	75%	—	9-1

Venue/role: MISS neutral, as underdog; PSU neutral, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MISS UOOUU	5-6	45%	10-2
PSU OOUUU	5-6	45%	10-2

Went over in Q4. Of 168 earlier overs in games with totals 49–57, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MISS	8-2 80%	4-4-2 50%	4-5 44%
PSU	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MISS+4.5 →+12.5▲ 8.0#16

PSU+6.6 →+20.0▲ 13.4#5

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW15

MISS

Longer bar = better

PSU

#24

Offense

Even

#36

#52

Defense

PSU better ▶

+0.8 #12

Turnovers

Even

+1.5 #2

70 plays #32

Pace

Even

72 plays #23

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MISS has the ball

Advantage: PSU defense

	MISS off	PSU def	Edge
Points / game	34.8 #18	11.4 #3	Even
Yards / play	6.50 #23	3.91 #1	PSU
PPA / play	+0.26 #16	−0.08 #5	Even
Success rate	45% #37	32% #1	PSU

When PSU has the ball

Even matchup

	PSU off	MISS def	Edge
Points / game	37.2 #11	22.3 #38	PSU
Yards / play	5.46 #81	5.30 #47	MISS
PPA / play	+0.20 #34	+0.09 #59	PSU
Success rate	47% #18	42% #64	PSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

MISS scoring against the PSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MISS scored	10.9 #6	5.5 #117	16.4 #36	8.4 #16	10.0 #9	18.4 #5
PSU allowed	1.9 #2	4.9 #16	6.8 #6	0.3 #1	4.3 #14	4.6 #2

PSU scoring against the MISS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PSU scored	5.8 #68	9.9 #35	15.8 #52	9.6 #7	11.8 #2	21.4 #3
MISS allowed	4.3 #35	6.3 #36	10.6 #30	5.8 #65	6.0 #55	11.8 #58

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.