Penn State @ Michigan State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2023)

Fri, Nov 24, 2023, 7:30 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Michigan State · Conference game

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Penn State

9-2 · Power #5

▲ winner

Final

Michigan State

4-7 · Power #98

final

Closing spread

PSU -22.5

✓ PSU W

Total

▼ Under · 42 pts

Model before kickoff

PSU 34–11 MSU

✓ PSU (95%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

ClosePSU -22.5

Total43

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

ClosePSU -22.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close43

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

ClosePSU -22.5

Total43

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like PSU as a 22.5-point road favorite at MSU, the favorite won 10, covered 8, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: PSU won 42–0; the favorite covered, as in 8 of the 10 similar games. 42 points stayed under 43, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 90%

Favorite covered

8 of 1080%

Above normal · usually 48%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 48%

Covers above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 30.6 against an average line of 22.8; 49.2 points a game (usually 55.3). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	FSU @ PITT 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar season form & spread	-21.5	24–7	L	U50
Close	CLEM @ BC 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-21	31–3	W	U48.75
Close	DUKE @ CONN 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & rest	-22	41–7	W	O45
Close	PSU @ RUTG 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & total	-18.5	55–10	W	O45
Close	MICH @ RUTG 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & total	-26.5	52–17	W	O45
Close	PSU @ NU 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-27	41–13	W	O46
Close	TROY @ ULM 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar spread	-21.5	45–14	W	O46.75
Close	MICH @ MSU 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & season form	-25.5	49–0	W	O46.5
Loose	UGA @ UK 2022 · Week 12 · loose · similar spread & rest	-22.5	16–6	L	U47.5
Loose	UGA @ SC 2020 · Week 13 · loose · similar spread & rest	-22	45–16	W	O50

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PSU LLWLW	8-3	73%	3-1	8-1
MSU LLWLW	5-5-1	50%	3-3	3-5-1

Venue/role: PSU away, as favorite; MSU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
PSU UOOUU	5-5	50%	9-2
MSU OUOUU	5-5	50%	4-7

Stayed under: it needed 16 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 51% of games with totals 39–47 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PSU	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%
MSU	3-7 30%	4-5-1 44%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

PSU+6.6 →+18.8▲ 12.2#5

MSU+7.2 →−5.6▼ 12.8#95

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

PSU

Longer bar = better

MSU

#45

Offense

◀ PSU better

#124

Defense

◀ PSU better

#81

+1.5 #2

Turnovers

◀ PSU better

−0.5 #109

72 plays #20

Pace

◀ PSU faster

64 plays #103

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When PSU has the ball

Advantage: PSU offense

	PSU off	MSU def	Edge
Points / game	36.7 #15	27.1 #78	PSU
Yards / play	5.18 #100	5.53 #67	MSU
PPA / play	+0.18 #45	+0.15 #89	PSU
Success rate	47% #20	44% #90	PSU

When MSU has the ball

Advantage: PSU defense

	MSU off	PSU def	Edge
Points / game	17.4 #130	12.5 #4	PSU
Yards / play	4.87 #121	4.11 #3	PSU
PPA / play	−0.05 #131	−0.08 #5	PSU
Success rate	38% #113	33% #3	PSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

PSU scoring against the MSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PSU scored	6.1 #67	9.9 #33	16.0 #45	9.1 #9	11.6 #1	20.7 #2
MSU allowed	5.0 #60	10.4 #117	15.4 #98	3.0 #8	8.7 #108	11.7 #60

MSU scoring against the PSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MSU scored	3.0 #123	5.1 #125	8.1 #127	4.6 #99	4.6 #114	9.3 #115
PSU allowed	2.1 #7	5.4 #29	7.5 #6	0.3 #1	4.7 #24	5.0 #3

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.