Indiana @ Purdue: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2023)

Sat, Nov 25, 2023, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Purdue · Conference game

Weather at kickoff36°F3 mphgusts 12DryCold Over 50% of 115 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Indiana

3-8 · Power #89

final

Final

Purdue

3-8 · Power #66

▲ winner

Closing spread

PUR -6.5

✓ IU W

Total

55.5

▲ Over · 66 pts

Model before kickoff

IU 24–31 PUR

✓ PUR (68%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

ClosePUR -6.5

Total55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

ClosePUR -6.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close55.5

Line context

Home favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 56% (63 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

ClosePUR -6.5

Total55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like PUR as a 6.5-point home favorite against IU, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: PUR won 35–31; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 66 points went over 55.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 67%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 13.7 against an average line of 6.3; 53.3 points a game (usually 53.9). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MEM vs TULN 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-5.5	33–28	L	O58
Very close	TULN vs TEM 2020 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & rest	-6.75	38–3	W	U57.5
Very close	CMU vs NIU 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & rest	-6	38–39	L	O56
Very close	TULN vs USF 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & season form	-5.5	45–14	W	U59.5
Very close	LT vs CLT 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7	42–32	W	O58.25
Very close	CAL vs WSU 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	6–21	L	U52.5
Very close	ARMY vs ULM 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & total	-6.5	48–24	W	O55.5
Very close	NCST vs GT 2020 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7	23–13	W	U61
Very close	BALL vs BUFF 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-6	20–3	W	U59.5
Very close	WVU vs CIN 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & rest	-5	42–21	W	O52.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
IU LWWWL	6-5	55%	2-2	5-3
PUR LLWWL	4-7	36%	2-4	0-2

Venue/role: IU away, as underdog; PUR home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
IU OOUOU	7-4	64%	3-8
PUR UOOOU	5-4	56%	3-8

Went over in Q4. Of 134 earlier overs in games with totals 51.5–59.5, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
IU	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%
PUR	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	5-4 56%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

IU 44–75 PUR (6 tied) PUR leads · 125 games since 1892 · IU has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

IU−10.1 →−4.9▲ 5.2#89

PUR−4.2 →−0.9▲ 3.3#67

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

Longer bar = better

PUR

#103

Offense

PUR better ▶

#89

#109

Defense

PUR better ▶

#80

−0.2 #90

Turnovers

Even

−0.3 #99

67 plays #67

Pace

PUR faster ▶

70 plays #34

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When IU has the ball

Advantage: PUR defense

	IU off	PUR def	Edge
Points / game	21.4 #107	30.4 #105	Even
Yards / play	4.97 #116	5.74 #83	PUR
PPA / play	+0.05 #105	+0.12 #83	PUR
Success rate	41% #85	40% #47	PUR

When PUR has the ball

Even matchup

	PUR off	IU def	Edge
Points / game	22.9 #97	29.5 #102	Even
Yards / play	5.31 #92	5.84 #90	Even
PPA / play	+0.04 #106	+0.21 #120	Even
Success rate	43% #62	46% #124	PUR

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

IU scoring against the PUR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IU scored	5.4 #78	5.8 #109	11.2 #95	3.2 #122	5.6 #98	8.8 #122
PUR allowed	7.6 #110	8.6 #90	16.3 #106	5.0 #52	9.1 #113	14.1 #95

PUR scoring against the IU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PUR scored	3.4 #119	6.2 #98	9.5 #113	5.7 #76	7.6 #46	13.4 #59
IU allowed	5.9 #81	9.5 #106	15.5 #99	6.5 #90	6.0 #58	12.5 #72

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.