Middle Tennessee @ Sam Houston: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2023)

Sat, Nov 25, 2023, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Sam Houston · Conference game

Weather at kickoff58°F8 mphgusts 19DryWeather watch ›

Middle Tennessee

4-7 · Power #99

final

Final

Sam Houston

2-9 · Power #114

▲ winner

Closing spread

MTSU -3.5

✓ SHSU W

Total

50.5

▼ Under · 43 pts

Model before kickoff

MTSU 24–21 SHSU

✗ MTSU (59%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMTSU -3.5

Total50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseMTSU -3.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close50.5

Line context

Road favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 53%, covered 43% (53 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMTSU -3.5

Total50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MTSU as a 3.5-point road favorite at SHSU, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: SHSU won 23–20 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 43 points stayed under 50.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.7 against an average line of 3.4; 58.7 points a game (usually 54.1). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TROY @ USA 2020 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & spread	-4	29–0	W	U54
Very close	UAB @ NAVY 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	6–31	L	U52
Very close	USF @ TEM 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	28–54	L	O49
Very close	OHIO @ M-OH 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & total	-2.5	37–21	W	O52
Very close	WMU @ EMU 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	45–21	W	O49.5
Very close	EMU @ BGSU 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-4	55–24	W	O49.5
Very close	CSU @ HAW 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	45–50	L	O53.75
Very close	USM @ ULM 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & rest	-3	20–10	W	U50
Very close	FAU @ UTEP 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & spread	-3	21–24	L	U50.75
Very close	LT @ RICE 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & situation	-4	31–35	L	O52.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MTSU WWLWL	4-7	36%	2-3	2-4
SHSU LLLWW	5-5-1	50%	0-3-1	5-2-1

Venue/role: MTSU away, as favorite; SHSU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MTSU OOUUO	5-5	50%	4-7
SHSU OOOOU	6-3	67%	2-9

Stayed under: it needed 22 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 56% of games with totals 46.5–54.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MTSU	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
SHSU	2-8 20%	4-5-1 44%	6-3 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

MTSU 1–1 SHSU Series tied · 2 games since 2023 · MTSU has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MTSU−13.1 →−7.0▲ 6.1#100

SHSU−3.3 →−10.9▼ 7.6#114

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

MTSU

Longer bar = better

SHSU

#87

Offense

◀ MTSU better

#119

#84

Defense

Even

#74

−0.3 #103

Turnovers

SHSU better ▶

+0.2 #51

69 plays #48

Pace

◀ MTSU faster

67 plays #62

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MTSU has the ball

Even matchup

	MTSU off	SHSU def	Edge
Points / game	24.6 #86	26.7 #75	Even
Yards / play	5.76 #64	5.95 #102	MTSU
PPA / play	+0.09 #87	+0.09 #62	SHSU
Success rate	39% #111	41% #58	SHSU

When SHSU has the ball

Advantage: MTSU defense

	SHSU off	MTSU def	Edge
Points / game	19.7 #118	28.5 #96	MTSU
Yards / play	4.67 #127	5.67 #77	MTSU
PPA / play	+0.04 #111	+0.10 #70	MTSU
Success rate	37% #119	44% #93	MTSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

MTSU scoring against the SHSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MTSU scored	7.5 #37	8.1 #62	15.5 #49	4.7 #97	4.4 #121	9.1 #118
SHSU allowed	6.5 #91	8.0 #76	14.5 #91	3.8 #24	6.5 #72	10.4 #37

SHSU scoring against the MTSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SHSU scored	4.1 #103	5.5 #114	9.6 #112	4.5 #103	5.0 #107	9.5 #112
MTSU allowed	5.8 #80	8.0 #76	13.8 #82	6.5 #87	8.3 #103	14.7 #105

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.