Liberty @ UTEP: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2023)

Sat, Nov 25, 2023, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 13 · at UTEP · Conference game

Weather at kickoff62°F21 mphgusts 35DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Liberty

11-0 · Power #32

▲ winner

Final

UTEP

3-8 · Power #115

final

Closing spread

LIB -18

✓ UTEP W

Total

▲ Over · 70 pts

Model before kickoff

LIB 34–16 UTEP

✓ LIB (89%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseLIB -18

Total55

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseLIB -18

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close55

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseLIB -18

Total55

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LIB as an 18-point road favorite at UTEP, the favorite won 9, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: LIB won 42–28; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 70 points went over 55, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 89%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 15.7 against an average line of 17.4; 53.3 points a game (usually 55.3). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CCU @ GASO 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & situation	-16	28–8	W	U56.25
Very close	TOL @ MASS 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & rest	-19	41–24	L	O55.5
Very close	CCU @ USA 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & rest	-15	27–21	L	U55
Very close	UCLA @ STAN 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-17	42–7	W	U52
Very close	CCU @ TXST 2020 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-16.5	49–14	W	O58.5
Close	APP @ TXST 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar total & rest	-19.5	24–36	L	O54.5
Close	ORE @ CAL 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & total	-16.75	42–24	W	O56.5
Close	TOL @ BALL 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-17.5	13–6	L	U48
Close	WKU @ RICE 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-19	42–21	W	O61.5
Close	UAB @ LT 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & total	-18	37–27	L	O55.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LIB LWWWL	7-4	64%	4-0	7-4
UTEP WLWWW	5-6	45%	2-3	4-4

Venue/role: LIB away, as favorite; UTEP home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LIB OOOUO	5-4	56%	11-0
UTEP UUOUO	4-7	36%	3-8

Went over in Q4. Of 141 earlier overs in games with totals 51–59, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LIB	10-0 100%	7-3 70%	5-4 56%
UTEP	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

LIB 3–0 UTEP LIB leads · 3 games since 2023 · LIB has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LIB+3.0 →+7.2▲ 4.2#28

UTEP−4.4 →−11.1▼ 6.7#116

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

LIB

Longer bar = better

UTEP

Offense

◀ LIB better

#96

#46

Defense

◀ LIB better

#93

+0.9 #9

Turnovers

◀ LIB better

−0.7 #127

71 plays #30

Pace

◀ LIB faster

66 plays #82

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LIB has the ball

Advantage: LIB offense

	LIB off	UTEP def	Edge
Points / game	39.9 #8	27.3 #82	LIB
Yards / play	7.10 #7	6.05 #107	LIB
PPA / play	+0.35 #5	+0.18 #106	LIB
Success rate	53% #3	42% #77	LIB

When UTEP has the ball

Advantage: LIB defense

	UTEP off	LIB def	Edge
Points / game	19.2 #122	21.1 #37	LIB
Yards / play	5.65 #76	5.36 #55	LIB
PPA / play	+0.07 #91	+0.02 #27	LIB
Success rate	40% #93	42% #66	LIB

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

LIB scoring against the UTEP defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LIB scored	10.5 #7	13.1 #7	23.5 #6	9.1 #10	7.3 #55	16.4 #26
UTEP allowed	6.6 #95	6.9 #54	13.5 #80	7.8 #115	5.9 #56	13.7 #91

UTEP scoring against the LIB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UTEP scored	4.5 #99	6.5 #91	10.9 #99	2.5 #130	5.8 #93	8.3 #124
LIB allowed	4.9 #53	6.5 #42	11.4 #42	4.9 #46	4.8 #27	9.7 #30

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.