Massachusetts @ Liberty: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2023)

Sat, Nov 18, 2023, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Liberty

Weather at kickoff64°F8 mphgusts 22DryWeather watch ›

Massachusetts

3-7 · Power #127

final

Final

Liberty

10-0 · Power #32

▲ winner

Closing spread

LIB -26.5

✓ MASS W

Total

63.5

▲ Over · 74 pts

Model before kickoff

MASS 18–45 LIB

✓ LIB (97%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseLIB -26.5

Total63.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseLIB -26.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close63.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseLIB -26.5

Total63.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LIB as a 26.5-point home favorite against MASS, the favorite won 9, covered 3, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: LIB won 49–25; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 74 points went over 63.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 93%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 55%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 18.2 against an average line of 25.9; 59.8 points a game (usually 56.3). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CCU vs TXST 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar season form & situation	-24.5	35–21	L	U60
Close	MISS vs VAN 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar total & rest	-24	33–7	W	U63
Close	CIN vs USF 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & season form	-27	28–24	L	U58.5
Close	UNC vs UVA 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & season form	-24	27–31	L	P58
Close	NEV vs NMSU 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar total & situation	-28.5	55–28	L	O64.75
Close	BYU vs USU 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & situation	-26	38–26	L	O60
Close	BOIS vs UNM 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & situation	-27.5	42–14	W	U59
Close	WMU vs AKR 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar total & situation	-24.5	45–40	L	O62
Close	TENN vs USA 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & total	-28.25	60–14	W	O61.5
Close	APP vs GASO 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar season form & situation	-24.5	27–3	L	U55

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MASS LWLWL	4-6	40%	3-2	4-3
LIB WLWWW	7-3	70%	3-3	7-3

Venue/role: MASS away, as underdog; LIB home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MASS O–OUU	6-3	67%	3-7
LIB UOOOU	4-4	50%	10-0

Went over in Q4. Of 48 earlier overs in games with totals 59.5–67.5, 25% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MASS	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	6-3 67%
LIB	10-0 100%	7-3 70%	4-4 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MASS−11.8 →−13.9▼ 2.1#125

LIB+3.0 →+6.7▲ 3.7#32

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

MASS

Longer bar = better

LIB

#72

Offense

LIB better ▶

#132

Defense

LIB better ▶

#44

+0.2 #49

Turnovers

LIB better ▶

+0.9 #12

62 plays #115

Pace

LIB faster ▶

70 plays #35

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MASS has the ball

Advantage: LIB defense

	MASS off	LIB def	Edge
Points / game	23.5 #95	20.7 #36	LIB
Yards / play	5.80 #63	5.27 #45	Even
PPA / play	+0.16 #57	+0.04 #35	LIB
Success rate	42% #74	41% #59	Even

When LIB has the ball

Advantage: LIB offense

	LIB off	MASS def	Edge
Points / game	39.0 #11	37.4 #133	LIB
Yards / play	7.06 #8	6.86 #133	LIB
PPA / play	+0.34 #6	+0.27 #131	LIB
Success rate	52% #5	48% #130	LIB

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

MASS scoring against the LIB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MASS scored	4.1 #104	5.8 #107	9.9 #110	5.1 #87	8.2 #30	13.3 #60
LIB allowed	5.4 #70	6.1 #37	11.5 #45	5.4 #56	3.8 #12	9.2 #23

LIB scoring against the MASS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LIB scored	9.4 #11	13.0 #6	22.4 #7	9.3 #10	7.3 #57	16.6 #24
MASS allowed	8.9 #127	10.8 #123	19.7 #129	8.0 #118	9.1 #110	17.1 #126

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.