UTEP @ Middle Tennessee: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2023)

Sat, Nov 18, 2023, 2:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Middle Tennessee · Conference game

Weather at kickoff58°F7 mphgusts 18DryWeather watch ›

UTEP

3-7 · Power #115

final

Final

Middle Tennessee

3-7 · Power #99

▲ winner

Closing spread

MTSU -8.5

✓ UTEP W

Total

▲ Over · 64 pts

Model before kickoff

UTEP 20–29 MTSU

✓ MTSU (73%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMTSU -8.5

Total48

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseMTSU -8.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close48

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–10.5 since 2023: won 73%, covered 49% (88 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMTSU -8.5

Total48

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MTSU as an 8.5-point home favorite against UTEP, the favorite won 4, covered 3, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: MTSU won 34–30; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 64 points went over 48, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Below normal · usually 71%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

Wins below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 1.7 against an average line of 8; 43.7 points a game (usually 54.2). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LT vs SHSU 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & situation	-8.5	27–42	L	O49.25
Very close	CMU vs WMU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & season form	-10	10–12	L	U48.75
Very close	MTSU vs FIU 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-10.5	40–6	W	U51
Very close	UTEP vs RICE 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & spread	-9	38–28	W	O47
Very close	FAU vs ECU 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & spread	-7.5	7–22	L	U44.75
Very close	CMU vs EMU 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & spread	-7.5	26–23	L	O47.5
Very close	CMU vs BGSU 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar season form & team ratings	-6	18–34	L	O50.5
Very close	GAST vs TROY 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & total	-6.5	37–10	W	U49.5
Very close	NU vs M-OH 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & season form	-7.5	14–17	L	U50
Very close	M-OH vs WMU 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar season form & spread	-7	10–16	L	U44

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UTEP LWLWW	4-6	40%	2-3	3-4
MTSU LWWLW	4-6	40%	2-3	2-3

Venue/role: UTEP away, as underdog; MTSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UTEP UUUOU	3-7	30%	3-7
MTSU OOOUU	4-5	44%	3-7

Went over in Q3. Of 139 earlier overs in games with totals 44–52, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UTEP	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	3-7 30%
MTSU	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	4-5 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UTEP−4.4 →−12.0▼ 7.6#120

MTSU−13.1 →−7.0▲ 6.1#99

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

UTEP

Longer bar = better

MTSU

#96

Offense

Even

#86

#96

Defense

Even

#87

−0.6 #116

Turnovers

Even

−0.5 #114

65 plays #90

Pace

MTSU faster ▶

69 plays #51

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UTEP has the ball

Even matchup

	UTEP off	MTSU def	Edge
Points / game	18.1 #128	28.4 #92	MTSU
Yards / play	5.58 #78	5.61 #71	Even
PPA / play	+0.08 #87	+0.12 #81	Even
Success rate	40% #91	44% #105	Even

When MTSU has the ball

Even matchup

	MTSU off	UTEP def	Edge
Points / game	23.7 #94	26.6 #71	UTEP
Yards / play	5.73 #68	6.04 #108	MTSU
PPA / play	+0.10 #78	+0.20 #118	MTSU
Success rate	39% #105	43% #86	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

UTEP scoring against the MTSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UTEP scored	4.2 #102	5.7 #111	9.9 #111	2.4 #129	5.8 #99	8.2 #125
MTSU allowed	5.7 #75	7.4 #72	13.1 #74	6.8 #96	8.5 #100	15.3 #108

MTSU scoring against the UTEP defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MTSU scored	6.8 #47	7.9 #67	14.7 #63	4.5 #102	4.5 #117	9.0 #121
UTEP allowed	5.9 #82	6.6 #50	12.5 #58	7.9 #116	6.2 #62	14.1 #92

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.