Sam Houston @ Louisiana Tech: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2023)

Sat, Nov 11, 2023, 3:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Louisiana Tech · Conference game

Weather at kickoff63°F6 mphgusts 14DryWeather watch ›

Sam Houston

1-8 · Power #114

▲ winner

Final

Louisiana Tech

3-7 · Power #116

final

Closing spread

LT -7.5

✓ SHSU W

Total

▲ Over · 69 pts

Model before kickoff

SHSU 20–27 LT

✗ LT (70%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseLT -7.5

Total49

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseLT -7.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close49

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 53% (48 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseLT -7.5

Total49

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LT as a 7.5-point home favorite against SHSU, the favorite won 7, covered 3, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: SHSU won 42–27 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 69 points went over 49, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 69%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.9 against an average line of 6.8; 39.5 points a game (usually 53.7). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CMU vs WMU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & rest	-10	10–12	L	U48.75
Very close	CMU vs BGSU 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & season form	-6	18–34	L	O50.5
Very close	CMU vs EMU 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	26–23	L	O47.5
Very close	CLT vs RICE 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	31–24	W	O52.25
Very close	GAST vs TROY 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & situation	-6.5	37–10	W	U49.5
Very close	NU vs M-OH 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	14–17	L	U50
Very close	TXST vs ARST 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & total	-6	16–13	L	U50
Very close	OHIO vs BGSU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & situation	-5.5	38–14	W	U52.5
Very close	BGSU vs WMU 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & total	-5	13–9	L	U48
Very close	EMU vs MASS 2023 · Week 3 · very close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	19–17	L	U49.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SHSU WLLLL	3-5-1	38%	2-2	3-2-1
LT WWLLL	4-6	40%	2-3	2-3

Venue/role: SHSU away, as underdog; LT home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SHSU –UOOO	5-2	71%	1-8
LT U–OUO	4-3	57%	3-7

Went over in Q4. Of 123 earlier overs in games with totals 45–53, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SHSUlast 9	1-8 11%	3-5-1 38%	5-2 71%
LT	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SHSU−3.3 →−12.7▼ 9.4#121

LT−2.5 →−8.6▼ 6.1#106

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

SHSU

Longer bar = better

#126

Offense

LT better ▶

#69

#73

Defense

◀ SHSU better

#90

−0.4 #113

Turnovers

Even

−0.4 #100

67 plays #71

Pace

Even

66 plays #74

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SHSU has the ball

Advantage: LT defense

	SHSU off	LT def	Edge
Points / game	16.9 #133	30.3 #107	LT
Yards / play	4.46 #131	5.81 #85	LT
PPA / play	0.00 #116	+0.17 #103	Even
Success rate	37% #125	42% #63	LT

When LT has the ball

Even matchup

	LT off	SHSU def	Edge
Points / game	26.7 #77	26.6 #77	Even
Yards / play	5.77 #66	5.70 #77	Even
PPA / play	+0.11 #73	+0.13 #86	Even
Success rate	43% #61	41% #53	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

SHSU scoring against the LT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SHSU scored	4.2 #103	4.2 #128	8.4 #125	3.1 #122	4.6 #117	7.7 #128
LT allowed	9.0 #126	9.9 #109	18.9 #126	5.9 #70	5.5 #49	11.4 #54

LT scoring against the SHSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LT scored	4.3 #101	8.1 #67	12.4 #87	7.0 #45	7.3 #53	14.3 #48
SHSU allowed	6.9 #108	7.9 #87	14.8 #96	3.1 #14	6.4 #66	9.6 #29

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.