Massachusetts @ Eastern Michigan: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2023)

Sat, Sep 16, 2023, 2:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Eastern Michigan

Weather at kickoff70°F2 mphgusts 9DryWeather watch ›

Massachusetts

1-2 · Power #127

final

Final

Eastern Michigan

1-1 · Power #126

▲ winner

Closing spread

EMU -9

✓ MASS W

Total

▼ Under · 36 pts

Model before kickoff

MASS 22–31 EMU

✓ EMU (73%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseEMU -9

Total50

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseEMU -9

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close50

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseEMU -9

Total50

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like EMU as a 9-point home favorite against MASS, the favorite won 6, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: EMU won 19–17; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 36 points stayed under 50, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 71%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0.4 against an average line of 8.8; 49.6 points a game (usually 55). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NU vs M-OH 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar total & rest	-7.5	14–17	L	U50
Very close	CMU vs WMU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & total	-10	10–12	L	U48.75
Very close	BALL vs CONN 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-9.5	25–21	L	U47.5
Very close	CMU vs BGSU 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & rest	-6	18–34	L	O50.5
Very close	UVA vs ODU 2022 · Week 3 · very close · similar rest & situation	-8.25	16–14	L	U52.5
Very close	ARMY vs ULM 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & season form	-6.5	48–24	W	O55.5
Very close	ECU vs USF 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-9.5	29–14	W	U55.5
Very close	UTEP vs RICE 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & rest	-9	38–28	W	O47
Very close	GASO vs TXST 2020 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & rest	-12	40–38	L	O49.5
Close	NIU vs AKR 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & season form	-9.5	12–44	L	O52

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MASS WLL	1-2	33%	1-1	1-2
EMU LW	1-1	50%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: MASS away, as underdog; EMU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MASS OOO	3-0	100%	1-2
EMU OU	1-1	50%	1-1

Stayed under: it needed 31 in the 4th quarter and got 16. 61% of games with totals 46–54 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MASSlast 3	1-2 33%	1-2 33%	3-0 100%
EMUlast 2	1-1 50%	1-1 50%	1-1 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 135 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MASS−11.8 →−13.2▼ 1.4#130

EMU−3.1 →−9.3▼ 6.2#118

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

MASS

Longer bar = better

EMU

#89

Offense

◀ MASS better

#108

#119

Defense

EMU better ▶

#79

−0.3 #81

Turnovers

EMU better ▶

+1.0 #24

61 plays #115

Pace

◀ MASS faster

51 plays #132

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MASS has the ball

Even matchup

	MASS off	EMU def	Edge
Points / game	25.0 #96	21.7 #61	EMU
Yards / play	5.96 #63	5.77 #97	MASS
PPA / play	+0.06 #99	+0.06 #70	EMU
Success rate	40% #96	42% #87	Even

When EMU has the ball

Even matchup

	EMU off	MASS def	Edge
Points / game	19.3 #118	37.3 #122	Even
Yards / play	5.32 #101	7.32 #130	EMU
PPA / play	+0.04 #107	+0.19 #108	Even
Success rate	39% #104	47% #114	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 42 FBS teams

MASS scoring against the EMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MASS scored	4.7 #29	3.3 #38	8.0 #40	5.7 #28	14.0 #3	19.7 #8
EMU allowed	0.0	9.5	9.5	12.0	2.5	14.5

EMU scoring against the MASS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
EMU scored	8.0	10.0	18.0	0.0	1.5	1.5
MASS allowed	10.3 #39	12.7 #39	23.0 #42	8.0 #35	12.3 #40	20.3 #39

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.