New Mexico State @ Western Kentucky: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2023)

Sat, Nov 11, 2023, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Western Kentucky · Conference game

Weather at kickoff58°F7 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

New Mexico State

7-3 · Power #84

▲ winner

Final

Western Kentucky

5-4 · Power #83

final

Closing spread

WKU -4.5

✓ NMSU W

Total

▲ Over · 67 pts

Model before kickoff

NMSU 26–30 WKU

✗ WKU (63%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseWKU -4.5

Total54

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseWKU -4.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close54

Line context

Home favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 64%, covered 46% (50 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseWKU -4.5

Total54

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WKU as a 4.5-point home favorite against NMSU, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: NMSU won 38–29 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 67 points went over 54, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.4 against an average line of 4; 53.2 points a game (usually 53.9). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BALL vs M-OH 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & total	-3.5	17–24	L	U53
Very close	MEM vs ECU 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-4	29–30	L	O58.75
Very close	GAST vs ODU 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & spread	-3.5	31–17	W	U53.75
Very close	CMU vs BUFF 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & situation	-2.75	31–27	W	O54
Very close	GAST vs GASO 2020 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	30–24	W	O51
Very close	FAU vs MTSU 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	17–27	L	U49.5
Very close	FSU vs SYR 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-5.5	33–30	L	O50.25
Very close	CMU vs NIU 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & total	-6	38–39	L	O56
Very close	APP vs CCU 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & season form	-4.5	24–27	L	U59
Very close	WSU vs CAL 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-4	28–9	W	U52.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NMSU WWWWW	8-2	80%	4-1	3-1
WKU WLLLL	3-6	33%	2-2	2-4

Venue/role: NMSU away, as underdog; WKU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NMSU –UUUU	2-7	22%	7-3
WKU U–UOU	3-4	43%	5-4

Went over in Q4. Of 125 earlier overs in games with totals 50–58, 28% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NMSU	7-3 70%	8-2 80%	2-7 22%
WKUlast 9	5-4 56%	3-6 33%	3-4 43%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NMSU−6.9 →−6.0▲ 0.9#95

WKU+3.1 →−3.4▼ 6.5#81

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

NMSU

Longer bar = better

WKU

#27

Offense

◀ NMSU better

#70

#64

Defense

◀ NMSU better

#100

−0.1 #74

Turnovers

WKU better ▶

+0.9 #14

59 plays #129

Pace

WKU faster ▶

66 plays #77

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NMSU has the ball

Advantage: NMSU offense

	NMSU off	WKU def	Edge
Points / game	27.8 #68	27.7 #86	Even
Yards / play	7.23 #5	6.03 #107	NMSU
PPA / play	+0.26 #14	+0.14 #89	NMSU
Success rate	48% #22	46% #119	NMSU

When WKU has the ball

Even matchup

	WKU off	NMSU def	Edge
Points / game	28.9 #61	20.0 #30	NMSU
Yards / play	5.81 #64	5.62 #73	Even
PPA / play	+0.17 #48	+0.11 #73	WKU
Success rate	39% #105	43% #81	NMSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

NMSU scoring against the WKU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NMSU scored	4.8 #89	10.1 #32	14.9 #60	5.4 #86	7.5 #49	12.9 #70
WKU allowed	3.9 #34	9.4 #98	13.3 #75	5.8 #64	8.6 #100	14.3 #95

WKU scoring against the NMSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WKU scored	9.9 #10	6.8 #92	16.7 #35	4.7 #105	7.6 #46	12.2 #81
NMSU allowed	2.7 #14	7.7 #84	10.4 #34	4.4 #38	5.2 #36	9.6 #30

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.