Ball State @ Northern Illinois: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2023)

Tue, Nov 7, 2023, 7:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Northern Illinois · Conference game

Weather at kickoff46°F12 mphgusts 20DryWeather watch ›

Ball State

2-7 · Power #113

▲ winner

Final

Northern Illinois

4-5 · Power #94

final

Closing spread

NIU -9

✓ BALL W

Total

▼ Under · 37 pts

Model before kickoff

BALL 18–28 NIU

✗ NIU (76%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseNIU -9

Total44

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseNIU -9

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close44

Line context

Home favorites of 7–11 since 2023: won 72%, covered 49% (68 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseNIU -9

Total44

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NIU as a 9-point home favorite against BALL, the favorite won 6, covered 3, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: BALL won 20–17 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 37 points stayed under 44, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 71%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.1 against an average line of 9.2; 43.1 points a game (usually 54.5). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UTEP vs RICE 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & rest	-9	38–28	W	O47
Very close	NIU vs BGSU 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & total	-9	34–26	L	O44.75
Very close	ARMY vs CONN 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & rest	-10.5	34–17	W	O45
Very close	RICE vs CONN 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-10	31–38	L	O47.5
Very close	M-OH vs BGSU 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & rest	-7.5	27–0	W	U43
Very close	M-OH vs WMU 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & rest	-7	10–16	L	U44
Very close	CMU vs WMU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-10	10–12	L	U48.75
Very close	TROY vs ARMY 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & rest	-8.5	10–9	L	U45.5
Very close	BALL vs CONN 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & rest	-9.5	25–21	L	U47.5
Very close	LIB vs VT 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & total	-10.5	22–23	L	U46.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BALL LLWWW	4-4-1	50%	1-3-1	3-4-1
NIU WWWLL	4-5	44%	1-3	1-4

Venue/role: BALL away, as underdog; NIU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BALL O–UUO	4-4	50%	2-7
NIU O–UUO	4-4	50%	4-5

Stayed under: it needed 25 in the 4th quarter and got 17. 55% of games with totals 40–48 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BALLlast 9	2-7 22%	4-4-1 50%	4-4 50%
NIUlast 9	4-5 44%	4-5 44%	4-4 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

BALL 24–24 NIU (1 tied) Series tied · 49 games since 1968 · NIU has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BALL−7.6 →−14.0▼ 6.4#124

NIU−1.1 →−5.1▼ 4.0#92

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

BALL

Longer bar = better

NIU

#117

Offense

NIU better ▶

#77

#92

Defense

NIU better ▶

#56

−0.9 #129

Turnovers

NIU better ▶

0.0 #69

63 plays #106

Pace

Even

64 plays #95

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BALL has the ball

Advantage: NIU defense

	BALL off	NIU def	Edge
Points / game	16.7 #135	23.0 #46	NIU
Yards / play	4.66 #126	5.14 #38	NIU
PPA / play	+0.04 #107	+0.10 #67	NIU
Success rate	39% #100	42% #72	NIU

When NIU has the ball

Even matchup

	NIU off	BALL def	Edge
Points / game	25.0 #83	28.4 #93	Even
Yards / play	5.63 #73	5.46 #62	Even
PPA / play	+0.12 #71	+0.18 #110	NIU
Success rate	41% #80	44% #101	NIU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

BALL scoring against the NIU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BALL scored	2.2 #129	4.1 #128	6.3 #133	3.9 #114	6.4 #75	10.3 #102
NIU allowed	5.2 #67	5.7 #27	10.9 #43	6.8 #92	5.0 #36	11.8 #61

NIU scoring against the BALL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NIU scored	3.8 #111	5.0 #123	8.8 #120	7.9 #33	7.7 #43	15.6 #34
BALL allowed	4.4 #47	11.3 #129	15.8 #104	7.3 #105	5.3 #47	12.7 #79

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.