Wyoming @ UNLV: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2023)

Fri, Nov 10, 2023, 10:45 PM ESTWeek 11 · at UNLV · Conference game

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Wyoming

6-3 · Power #74

final

Final

UNLV

7-2 · Power #68

▲ winner

Closing spread

UNLV -3

✓ UNLV W

Total

48.5

▼ Under · 48 pts

Model before kickoff

WYO 24–28 UNLV

✓ UNLV (61%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUNLV -3

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseUNLV -3

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close48.5

Line context

Home favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 56%, covered 46% (75 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUNLV -3

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UNLV as a 3-point home favorite against WYO, the favorite won 4, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: UNLV won 34–14; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 48 points stayed under 48.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 5.5 against an average line of 3.1; 46.7 points a game (usually 53.9). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	USA vs TROY 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	6–10	L	U47
Very close	MTSU vs ODU 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	17–24	L	U48.5
Very close	GAST vs TROY 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar season form & total	-1	7–28	L	U51
Very close	CCU vs GASO 2020 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-1.25	28–14	W	U49
Very close	USU vs WYO 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & season form	-5.75	17–44	L	O52
Very close	CCU vs USM 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-5	26–23	L	O48
Very close	JMU vs USA 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	31–23	W	O49.5
Very close	GAST vs GASO 2020 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	30–24	W	O51
Very close	SC vs MIZ 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	10–23	L	U45.25
Very close	WVU vs OKST 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	34–48	L	O48.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WYO LWWLW	5-3-1	63%	2-1	4-1
UNLV WWLWW	8-1	89%	3-1	4-1

Venue/role: WYO away, as underdog; UNLV home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WYO O–OUU	2-5	29%	6-3
UNLV OOUUO	5-4	56%	7-2

Stayed under: it needed 7 in the 4th quarter and got 6. 55% of games with totals 44.5–52.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WYOlast 9	6-3 67%	5-3-1 63%	2-5 29%
UNLVlast 9	7-2 78%	8-1 89%	5-4 56%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

WYO 14–13 UNLV WYO leads · 27 games since 1978 · UNLV has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WYO−2.7 →−5.1▼ 2.4#93

UNLV−2.6 →−0.3▲ 2.3#66

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

WYO

Longer bar = better

UNLV

#95

Offense

UNLV better ▶

#35

#72

Defense

Even

#70

+0.9 #15

Turnovers

Even

+1.0 #10

59 plays #127

Pace

UNLV faster ▶

69 plays #48

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WYO has the ball

Advantage: UNLV defense

	WYO off	UNLV def	Edge
Points / game	23.9 #92	25.4 #69	UNLV
Yards / play	5.11 #110	5.89 #93	Even
PPA / play	+0.08 #86	+0.10 #67	Even
Success rate	41% #90	40% #50	UNLV

When UNLV has the ball

Advantage: UNLV offense

	UNLV off	WYO def	Edge
Points / game	36.7 #16	25.1 #68	UNLV
Yards / play	6.13 #45	5.37 #55	Even
PPA / play	+0.24 #21	+0.09 #63	UNLV
Success rate	43% #56	44% #102	UNLV

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

WYO scoring against the UNLV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WYO scored	6.3 #58	6.9 #88	13.2 #77	5.7 #78	3.3 #131	9.0 #117
UNLV allowed	4.2 #42	5.7 #27	9.9 #32	7.7 #113	7.9 #92	15.6 #107

UNLV scoring against the WYO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNLV scored	8.1 #24	11.3 #20	19.4 #18	7.9 #32	9.3 #18	17.2 #16
WYO allowed	5.2 #67	6.3 #43	11.6 #52	3.0 #12	9.1 #109	12.1 #69

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.