Fresno State @ San José State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2023)

Sat, Nov 11, 2023, 10:30 PM ESTWeek 11 · at San José State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff61°F2 mphDryWeather watch ›

Fresno State

8-1 · Power #71

final

Final

San José State

4-5 · Power #60

▲ winner

Closing spread

SJSU -2

✓ SJSU W

Total

▲ Over · 60 pts

Model before kickoff

FRES 27–28 SJSU

✓ SJSU (54%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseSJSU -2

Total52

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseSJSU -2

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close52

Line context

Home favorites of 1–3 since 2023: won 49%, covered 46% (61 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseSJSU -2

Total52

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SJSU as a 2-point home favorite against FRES, the favorite won 8, covered 8, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: SJSU won 42–18; the favorite covered, as in 8 of the 10 similar games. 60 points went over 52, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

8 of 1080%

Above normal · usually 48%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 47%

Covers above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 10.1 against an average line of 1.6; 53.5 points a game (usually 54.2). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	GAST vs MRSH 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-1.5	41–24	W	O53.5
Very close	BC vs LOU 2020 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-1	34–27	W	O56.5
Very close	ORST vs WSU 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & spread	-3	24–10	W	U51.5
Very close	VT vs SYR 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-2.5	38–10	W	O47
Very close	ODU vs CCU 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & situation	-0.5	24–28	L	O51.5
Very close	WASH vs UCLA 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-1.5	17–24	L	U55.5
Very close	BYU vs CIN 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-1	35–27	W	O48
Very close	USU vs SJSU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & total	-1	35–31	W	O51
Very close	WAKE vs UVA 2020 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	40–23	W	O57
Very close	VT vs WAKE 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-1.5	30–13	W	U48.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
FRES LLLLW	4-5	44%	2-2	1-0
SJSU LPWWW	6-2-1	75%	2-2	4-0

Venue/role: FRES away, as underdog; SJSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
FRES U–OUO	4-3	57%	8-1
SJSU O–OUU	4-3	57%	4-5

Went over in Q4. Of 158 earlier overs in games with totals 48–56, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FRESlast 9	8-1 89%	4-5 44%	4-3 57%
SJSUlast 9	4-5 44%	6-2-1 75%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

FRES+4.2 →+2.2▼ 2.0#51

SJSU−9.4 →−1.1▲ 8.3#70

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

FRES

Longer bar = better

SJSU

#44

Offense

Even

#43

Defense

◀ FRES better

#95

+1.3 #4

Turnovers

Even

+1.0 #7

71 plays #29

Pace

◀ FRES faster

64 plays #102

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When FRES has the ball

Advantage: FRES offense

	FRES off	SJSU def	Edge
Points / game	34.0 #26	27.4 #84	FRES
Yards / play	5.72 #70	5.64 #72	Even
PPA / play	+0.20 #37	+0.21 #124	FRES
Success rate	44% #43	44% #100	FRES

When SJSU has the ball

Even matchup

	SJSU off	FRES def	Edge
Points / game	33.0 #29	21.7 #43	Even
Yards / play	6.23 #40	5.12 #38	Even
PPA / play	+0.17 #50	+0.07 #50	Even
Success rate	44% #51	39% #39	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

FRES scoring against the SJSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FRES scored	8.6 #21	7.6 #78	16.1 #43	10.3 #6	6.4 #81	16.8 #24
SJSU allowed	2.2 #8	10.4 #118	12.7 #66	6.2 #82	8.6 #102	14.8 #102

SJSU scoring against the FRES defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SJSU scored	6.4 #58	11.4 #17	17.9 #26	8.9 #20	6.2 #89	15.1 #36
FRES allowed	4.1 #38	6.9 #58	11.0 #41	3.4 #20	6.4 #66	9.9 #31

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.