USC @ Oregon: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2023)

Sat, Nov 11, 2023, 10:30 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Oregon · Conference game

Weather at kickoff51°F3 mphDryWeather watch ›

USC

7-3 · Power #23

final

Final

Oregon

8-1 · Power #2

▲ winner

Closing spread

ORE -17

✓ USC W

Total

▼ Under · 63 pts

Model before kickoff

USC 28–45 ORE

✓ ORE (88%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseORE -17

Total78

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseORE -17

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close78

Line context

Home favorites of 15–19 since 2023: won 98%, covered 57% (51 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseORE -17

Total78

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 7 games most like ORE as a 17-point home favorite against USC, the favorite won 5, covered 3, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: ORE won 36–27; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 7 similar games. 63 points stayed under 78, as in 5 of 7.

Favorite won

5 of 771%

Normal range · usually 87%

Favorite covered

3 of 743%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

2 of 729%

Normal range · usually 49%

Only 7 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 16.3 against an average line of 18; 69.4 points a game (usually 55.1). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 7 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	OSU vs MSU 2021 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & situation	-19.5	56–7	W	U70.5
Loose	ORE vs WASH 2022 · Week 11 · loose · similar situation & rest	-12	34–37	L	U74
Loose	OSU vs MD 2021 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & situation	-21.75	66–17	W	O71.5
Loose	ALA vs MISS 2021 · Week 5 · loose · similar total & situation	-15	42–21	W	U79.5
Loose	USC vs ARIZ 2023 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & situation	-21	43–41	L	O69.5
Loose	UCLA vs ARIZ 2022 · Week 11 · loose · similar total & situation	-20	28–34	L	U77.5
Loose	OU vs UCF 2023 · Week 8 · loose · similar spread & season form	-17	31–29	L	U67.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USC LLLLL	2-8	20%	0-4	0-2
ORE WWLWW	8-1	89%	4-1	7-1

Venue/role: USC away, as underdog; ORE home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USC –OOOO	7-1	88%	7-3
ORE UOOUO	4-5	44%	8-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USC	7-3 70%	2-8 20%	7-1 88%
ORElast 9	8-1 89%	8-1 89%	4-5 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

USC 39–24 ORE (2 tied) USC leads · 65 games since 1920 · ORE has won the last 5 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

USC+9.1 →+10.3▲ 1.2#20

ORE+8.3 →+22.1▲ 13.8#2

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

USC

Longer bar = better

ORE

Offense

Even

#117

Defense

ORE better ▶

#14

+0.2 #52

Turnovers

ORE better ▶

+0.9 #14

65 plays #100

Pace

ORE faster ▶

70 plays #42

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USC has the ball

Even matchup

	USC off	ORE def	Edge
Points / game	45.5 #2	16.0 #10	Even
Yards / play	7.53 #4	4.69 #13	Even
PPA / play	+0.34 #5	−0.03 #14	Even
Success rate	50% #10	37% #20	Even

When ORE has the ball

Advantage: ORE offense

	ORE off	USC def	Edge
Points / game	47.4 #1	34.5 #125	ORE
Yards / play	7.76 #2	6.11 #112	ORE
PPA / play	+0.44 #2	+0.21 #121	ORE
Success rate	56% #1	45% #108	ORE

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

USC scoring against the ORE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USC scored	12.5 #4	11.4 #18	23.9 #4	9.1 #14	11.0 #3	20.1 #4
ORE allowed	5.2 #65	4.0 #9	9.2 #25	3.3 #17	3.4 #7	6.8 #5

ORE scoring against the USC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ORE scored	12.6 #3	14.3 #4	26.9 #1	11.3 #3	9.2 #20	20.6 #3
USC allowed	6.6 #100	10.3 #115	16.9 #111	6.7 #94	9.6 #119	16.3 #114

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.