UCLA @ USC: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2023)

Sat, Nov 18, 2023, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 12 · at USC · Conference game

Weather at kickoff69°F4 mphgusts 10DryWeather watch ›

UCLA

6-4 · Power #26

▲ winner

Final

USC

7-4 · Power #23

final

Closing spread

USC -5

✓ UCLA W

Total

▼ Under · 58 pts

Model before kickoff

UCLA 29–34 USC

✗ USC (64%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUSC -5

Total63

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseUSC -5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close63

Line context

Home favorites of 3–7 since 2023: won 64%, covered 50% (120 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUSC -5

Total63

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like USC as a 5-point home favorite against UCLA, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: UCLA won 38–20 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 58 points stayed under 63, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 8.2 against an average line of 4.7; 65.8 points a game (usually 53.6). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	USC vs ND 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & rest	-4.25	38–27	W	O62.75
Very close	OU vs BAY 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & total	-3	35–38	L	O61.5
Very close	KU vs TTU 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & total	-3.5	13–16	L	U61.5
Very close	MISS vs MSST 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & situation	-2.5	22–24	L	U63
Very close	SMU vs UCF 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-7	55–28	W	O61.5
Very close	UCLA vs CAL 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-6.5	42–14	W	U58.5
Very close	SMU vs TLSA 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & rest	-6.5	31–34	L	O62.5
Very close	UVA vs VT 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & rest	-7	24–29	L	U63.5
Very close	SMU vs HOU 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	77–63	W	O66
Very close	VT vs UVA 2020 · Week 15 · very close · similar rest & total	-3	33–15	W	U64

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UCLA LWLLL	4-6	40%	2-3	0-2
USC LLLLW	3-8	27%	2-4	2-6

Venue/role: UCLA away, as underdog; USC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UCLA OUUUU	2-6	25%	6-4
USC OOOOU	7-2	78%	7-4

Stayed under: it needed 20 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 44% of games with totals 59–67 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UCLA	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	2-6 25%
USC	6-4 60%	3-7 30%	6-2 75%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

UCLA 34–54 USC (7 tied) USC leads · 95 games since 1929 · USC has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UCLA+2.8 →+7.2▲ 4.4#29

USC+9.1 →+10.2▲ 1.1#22

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

UCLA

Longer bar = better

USC

#71

Offense

USC better ▶

#14

Defense

◀ UCLA better

#122

0.0 #78

Turnovers

Even

+0.1 #65

71 plays #28

Pace

◀ UCLA faster

64 plays #100

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UCLA has the ball

Advantage: UCLA offense

	UCLA off	USC def	Edge
Points / game	26.4 #72	34.6 #125	UCLA
Yards / play	6.04 #49	6.32 #121	UCLA
PPA / play	+0.08 #92	+0.24 #127	UCLA
Success rate	42% #71	45% #114	UCLA

When USC has the ball

Even matchup

	USC off	UCLA def	Edge
Points / game	43.8 #3	16.4 #10	Even
Yards / play	7.43 #4	4.39 #9	Even
PPA / play	+0.33 #7	−0.06 #10	Even
Success rate	49% #12	37% #28	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

UCLA scoring against the USC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UCLA scored	6.3 #59	7.8 #70	14.1 #73	5.5 #84	6.8 #69	12.3 #78
USC allowed	7.2 #102	10.2 #116	17.4 #116	6.7 #96	9.4 #118	16.1 #115

USC scoring against the UCLA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USC scored	12.0 #4	11.0 #18	23.0 #6	8.3 #27	11.2 #2	19.5 #6
UCLA allowed	4.3 #36	4.3 #13	8.6 #19	4.7 #48	3.1 #5	7.8 #12

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.