Oregon @ Arizona State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2023)

Sat, Nov 18, 2023, 4:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Arizona State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff72°F5 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

Oregon

9-1 · Power #2

▲ winner

Final

Arizona State

3-7 · Power #101

final

Closing spread

ORE -24.5

✓ ORE W

Total

54.5

▲ Over · 62 pts

Model before kickoff

ORE 39–14 ASU

✓ ORE (96%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseORE -24.5

Total54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseORE -24.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close54.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseORE -24.5

Total54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ORE as a 24.5-point road favorite at ASU, the favorite won 10, covered 5, and 7 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: ORE won 49–13; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 62 points went over 54.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 91%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 54%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 25.1 against an average line of 24.1; 55.9 points a game (usually 55.8). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MICH @ IU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-23.5	31–10	L	U57.5
Very close	CIN @ USF 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & spread	-24	45–28	L	O58.5
Close	OSU @ MSU 2020 · Week 14 · close · similar situation & rest	-22.5	52–12	W	O59
Close	ORE @ STAN 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-27	42–6	W	U61
Close	MICH @ MSU 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-25.5	49–0	W	O46.5
Close	UTAH @ ARIZ 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar total & situation	-24	38–29	L	O54.5
Close	FSU @ PITT 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & rest	-21.5	24–7	L	U50
Close	MICH @ RUTG 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-26.5	52–17	W	O45
Close	FSU @ WAKE 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & total	-21	41–16	W	O53
Close	FSU @ BC 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & spread	-25.25	31–29	L	O47.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ORE WLWWL	8-2	80%	4-0	7-2
ASU PWWLW	5-4-1	56%	2-3-1	5-3-1

Venue/role: ORE away, as favorite; ASU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ORE OOUOU	4-6	40%	9-1
ASU UUOOU	3-7	30%	3-7

Went over in Q4. Of 129 earlier overs in games with totals 50.5–58.5, 31% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ORE	9-1 90%	8-2 80%	4-6 40%
ASU	3-7 30%	5-4-1 56%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ORE+8.3 →+22.3▲ 14.0#2

ASU+0.4 →−5.2▼ 5.6#90

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

ORE

Longer bar = better

ASU

Offense

◀ ORE better

#123

#18

Defense

◀ ORE better

#79

+0.9 #14

Turnovers

◀ ORE better

−1.0 #132

69 plays #47

Pace

Even

68 plays #52

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ORE has the ball

Advantage: ORE offense

	ORE off	ASU def	Edge
Points / game	46.3 #1	27.4 #81	ORE
Yards / play	7.85 #2	5.32 #49	ORE
PPA / play	+0.45 #2	+0.13 #87	ORE
Success rate	56% #1	44% #99	ORE

When ASU has the ball

Advantage: ORE defense

	ASU off	ORE def	Edge
Points / game	17.7 #130	17.1 #14	ORE
Yards / play	4.74 #125	4.84 #17	ORE
PPA / play	+0.01 #117	0.00 #20	ORE
Success rate	38% #119	37% #22	ORE

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

ORE scoring against the ASU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ORE scored	12.6 #2	13.8 #4	26.4 #1	10.9 #4	9.0 #20	19.9 #4
ASU allowed	5.9 #81	6.7 #50	12.6 #61	5.0 #53	9.8 #123	14.8 #105

ASU scoring against the ORE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ASU scored	4.5 #98	6.5 #95	11.0 #103	2.8 #127	3.9 #129	6.7 #129
ORE allowed	5.4 #75	4.3 #13	9.7 #26	3.0 #9	4.4 #20	7.4 #10

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.