Utah @ Arizona: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2023)

Sat, Nov 18, 2023, 2:30 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Arizona · Conference game

Weather at kickoff67°F16 mphgusts 25Wet0.1 mmWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Utah

7-3 · Power #33

final

Final

Arizona

7-3 · Power #18

▲ winner

Closing spread

ARIZ -2.5

✓ ARIZ W

Total

47.5

▲ Over · 60 pts

Model before kickoff

UTAH 19–22 ARIZ

✓ ARIZ (56%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseARIZ -2.5

Total47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseARIZ -2.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close47.5

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 58%, covered 51% (84 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseARIZ -2.5

Total47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ARIZ as a 2.5-point home favorite against UTAH, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: ARIZ won 42–18; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 60 points went over 47.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.2 against an average line of 3; 41.2 points a game (usually 54). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ARK vs AUB 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	10–48	L	O47
Very close	KSU vs BAY 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	10–20	L	U50
Very close	SC vs MIZ 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	10–23	L	U45.25
Very close	LOU vs NCST 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & situation	-4	25–10	W	U43
Very close	WVU vs TCU 2020 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	24–6	W	U44.5
Very close	MSST vs TA&M 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-4	42–24	W	O45
Very close	BAY vs WVU 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-1	45–20	W	O45
Very close	PUR vs MINN 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	13–20	L	U46
Very close	ORST vs WSU 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	24–10	W	U51.5
Very close	PITT vs SYR 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & rest	-3.5	19–9	W	U47.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UTAH WWLWW	6-3-1	67%	2-1-1	2-2
ARIZ WWWWL	8-2	80%	5-0	2-2

Venue/role: UTAH away, as underdog; ARIZ home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UTAH OOUOO	4-5	44%	7-3
ARIZ –UUUO	1-8	11%	7-3

Went over in Q4. Of 136 earlier overs in games with totals 43.5–51.5, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UTAH	7-3 70%	6-3-1 67%	4-5 44%
ARIZ	7-3 70%	8-2 80%	1-8 11%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UTAH+1.7 →+9.0▲ 7.3#24

ARIZ+1.3 →+8.0▲ 6.7#26

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

UTAH

Longer bar = better

ARIZ

#90

Offense

ARIZ better ▶

#25

#20

Defense

◀ UTAH better

#58

+0.6 #24

Turnovers

◀ UTAH better

−0.4 #106

67 plays #65

Pace

Even

68 plays #61

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UTAH has the ball

Advantage: ARIZ defense

	UTAH off	ARIZ def	Edge
Points / game	25.3 #81	20.9 #39	ARIZ
Yards / play	5.28 #94	5.40 #58	ARIZ
PPA / play	+0.06 #99	+0.09 #61	ARIZ
Success rate	41% #84	43% #73	Even

When ARIZ has the ball

Even matchup

	ARIZ off	UTAH def	Edge
Points / game	31.1 #43	17.8 #16	UTAH
Yards / play	6.49 #25	5.02 #29	Even
PPA / play	+0.24 #24	+0.01 #22	Even
Success rate	52% #8	35% #13	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

UTAH scoring against the ARIZ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UTAH scored	5.9 #71	7.8 #70	13.7 #74	5.8 #74	5.8 #100	11.6 #86
ARIZ allowed	5.8 #77	5.4 #28	11.2 #43	3.8 #23	3.7 #10	7.5 #11

ARIZ scoring against the UTAH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARIZ scored	4.4 #102	8.6 #53	13.0 #81	7.8 #32	9.0 #19	16.8 #20
UTAH allowed	5.8 #77	3.8 #7	9.6 #27	4.5 #42	3.7 #10	8.2 #19

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.