Hawai'i @ Wyoming: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2023)

Sat, Nov 18, 2023, 2:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Wyoming · Conference game

Weather at kickoff50°F8 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

Hawai'i

4-7 · Power #123

final

Final

Wyoming

6-4 · Power #74

▲ winner

Closing spread

WYO -13.5

✓ WYO W

Total

▲ Over · 51 pts

Model before kickoff

HAW 17–31 WYO

✓ WYO (84%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseWYO -13.5

Total45

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseWYO -13.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close45

Line context

Home favorites of 11.5–15.5 since 2023: won 86%, covered 50% (57 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseWYO -13.5

Total45

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WYO as a 13.5-point home favorite against HAW, the favorite won 8, covered 2, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: WYO won 42–9; the favorite covered, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 51 points went over 45, as in 8 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 81%

Favorite covered

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.6 against an average line of 13.7; 57.4 points a game (usually 55.9). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WYO vs HAW 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & situation	-13	14–38	L	O48.5
Very close	TROY vs ULM 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & rest	-15	34–16	W	O48.5
Very close	WYO vs UNM 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & rest	-14	35–26	L	O41
Very close	TOL vs BGSU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & spread	-14.5	35–42	L	O46.5
Very close	BC vs CONN 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar season form & rest	-14.5	21–14	L	U49
Very close	VT vs DUKE 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-13	48–17	W	O50.5
Very close	GASO vs TXST 2020 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-12	40–38	L	O49.5
Very close	MRSH vs ODU 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & rest	-14	41–35	L	O47
Very close	NIU vs EMU 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & total	-12	20–13	L	U43.5
Very close	NAVY vs TEM 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar season form & spread	-14.5	27–20	L	O41.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HAW LLLWW	3-7-1	30%	2-3	3-5
WYO WWLWL	5-4-1	56%	3-2-1	1-2-1

Venue/role: HAW away, as underdog; WYO home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
HAW OOUUU	5-6	45%	4-7
WYO –OUUU	2-6	25%	6-4

Went over in Q4. Of 101 earlier overs in games with totals 41–49, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HAW	4-6 40%	2-7-1 22%	4-6 40%
WYO	6-4 60%	5-4-1 56%	2-6 25%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

HAW−6.5 →−12.6▼ 6.1#122

WYO−2.7 →−5.8▼ 3.1#95

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

HAW

Longer bar = better

WYO

#103

Offense

Even

#94

#93

Defense

WYO better ▶

#75

−0.9 #131

Turnovers

WYO better ▶

+0.7 #20

65 plays #85

Pace

◀ HAW faster

59 plays #128

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When HAW has the ball

Advantage: WYO defense

	HAW off	WYO def	Edge
Points / game	22.0 #106	26.0 #67	WYO
Yards / play	5.21 #98	5.40 #57	WYO
PPA / play	+0.04 #108	+0.11 #71	WYO
Success rate	39% #101	44% #106	Even

When WYO has the ball

Even matchup

	WYO off	HAW def	Edge
Points / game	22.9 #100	32.1 #116	Even
Yards / play	5.09 #107	5.92 #97	Even
PPA / play	+0.09 #85	+0.14 #90	Even
Success rate	41% #85	42% #70	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

HAW scoring against the WYO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HAW scored	2.8 #125	7.0 #84	9.8 #112	4.4 #107	7.8 #41	12.2 #79
WYO allowed	6.8 #102	5.7 #31	12.5 #58	3.4 #16	8.8 #104	12.2 #71

WYO scoring against the HAW defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WYO scored	5.7 #74	7.6 #76	13.3 #76	5.1 #87	3.0 #131	8.1 #126
HAW allowed	8.8 #124	9.3 #99	18.1 #121	6.8 #97	7.2 #87	14.0 #88

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.