Nevada @ Colorado State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2023)

Sat, Nov 18, 2023, 3:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Colorado State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff60°F2 mphgusts 9DryWeather watch ›

Nevada

2-8 · Power #132

final

Final

Colorado State

4-6 · Power #109

▲ winner

Closing spread

CSU -12

✓ NEV W

Total

▲ Over · 50 pts

Model before kickoff

NEV 19–31 CSU

✓ CSU (80%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseCSU -12

Total45

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseCSU -12

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close45

Line context

Home favorites of 10–14 since 2023: won 84%, covered 44% (67 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseCSU -12

Total45

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CSU as a 12-point home favorite against NEV, the favorite won 5, covered 2, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: CSU won 30–20; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 8 of the 10 similar games. 50 points went over 45, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Below normal · usually 79%

Favorite covered

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 50%

Wins below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 2.6 against an average line of 11.5; 40.6 points a game (usually 55.7). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UNLV vs NEV 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-12.5	27–22	L	P49
Very close	SDSU vs NEV 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-11	0–6	L	U48.5
Very close	CMU vs WMU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & situation	-10	10–12	L	U48.75
Very close	NIU vs BALL 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & total	-9.5	17–20	L	U43
Very close	MTSU vs USM 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-12.5	35–10	W	U47.25
Very close	ARMY vs CONN 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & rest	-10.5	34–17	W	O45
Very close	GASO vs TXST 2020 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & situation	-12	40–38	L	O49.5
Very close	CMU vs AKR 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & total	-10.5	17–10	L	U44
Very close	LT vs USM 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & season form	-15.5	19–35	L	O47.5
Very close	TLSA vs NAVY 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & spread	-11	17–20	L	U46

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NEV LWWLL	5-5	50%	3-2	4-4
CSU WWLLL	4-6	40%	1-4	0-3

Venue/role: NEV away, as underdog; CSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NEV OUOUO	3-6	33%	2-8
CSU OUUUU	5-5	50%	4-6

Went over in Q4. Of 104 earlier overs in games with totals 41–49, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NEV	2-8 20%	5-5 50%	3-6 33%
CSU	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NEV−18.4 →−16.1▲ 2.3#129

CSU−7.1 →−8.5▼ 1.4#108

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

NEV

Longer bar = better

CSU

#128

Offense

CSU better ▶

#84

#122

Defense

CSU better ▶

#84

−0.1 #84

Turnovers

◀ NEV better

−0.6 #121

66 plays #76

Pace

CSU faster ▶

70 plays #38

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NEV has the ball

Advantage: CSU defense

	NEV off	CSU def	Edge
Points / game	18.2 #127	30.8 #108	Even
Yards / play	4.65 #127	5.70 #79	CSU
PPA / play	−0.05 #130	+0.11 #73	CSU
Success rate	36% #129	43% #74	CSU

When CSU has the ball

Advantage: CSU offense

	CSU off	NEV def	Edge
Points / game	25.9 #76	32.9 #119	CSU
Yards / play	5.64 #73	6.98 #136	CSU
PPA / play	+0.04 #106	+0.19 #114	Even
Success rate	41% #80	46% #120	CSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

NEV scoring against the CSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NEV scored	4.0 #107	4.7 #126	8.7 #124	3.1 #122	6.4 #82	9.5 #117
CSU allowed	5.4 #72	7.1 #64	12.5 #59	7.2 #106	9.6 #122	16.8 #121

CSU scoring against the NEV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CSU scored	6.3 #58	5.7 #113	12.0 #90	3.0 #126	10.2 #7	13.2 #63
NEV allowed	7.0 #102	7.5 #72	14.5 #94	9.5 #129	8.9 #106	18.4 #131

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.