San Diego State @ Colorado State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2023)

Sat, Nov 11, 2023, 7:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Colorado State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff43°F8 mphDryWeather watch ›

San Diego State

3-6 · Power #112

final

Final

Colorado State

3-6 · Power #109

▲ winner

Closing spread

CSU -3.5

✓ SDSU W

Total

▼ Under · 41 pts

Model before kickoff

SDSU 23–28 CSU

✓ CSU (63%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseCSU -3.5

Total47

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseCSU -3.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close47

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 55%, covered 46% (85 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseCSU -3.5

Total47

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CSU as a 3.5-point home favorite against SDSU, the favorite won 5, covered 3, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: CSU won 22–19; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 41 points stayed under 47, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 1.7 against an average line of 3.7; 45.5 points a game (usually 54.2). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	RICE vs UTEP 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & total	-3.5	37–30	W	O47
Very close	CLT vs WKU 2020 · Week 14 · very close · similar total & situation	-2.5	19–37	L	O46.5
Very close	BGSU vs WMU 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & situation	-5	13–9	L	U48
Very close	TLSA vs CLT 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & situation	-4.5	26–33	L	O47.5
Very close	M-OH vs BALL 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	18–17	L	U45
Very close	BUFF vs BGSU 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	14–24	L	U44.5
Very close	CAL vs STAN 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & total	-5	27–20	W	O46
Very close	CMU vs BGSU 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-6	18–34	L	O50.5
Very close	FAU vs UTSA 2020 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & rest	-4.5	24–3	W	U47
Very close	NIU vs M-OH 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & rest	-0.5	23–29	L	O44

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SDSU WLWLL	4-5	44%	2-1	2-3
CSU LWWLL	4-5	44%	1-3	0-2

Venue/role: SDSU away, as underdog; CSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SDSU OOOUP	4-3-1	57%	3-6
CSU OOUUU	5-4	56%	3-6

Stayed under: it needed 20 in the 4th quarter and got 13. 54% of games with totals 43–51 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SDSUlast 9	3-6 33%	4-5 44%	4-3-1 57%
CSUlast 9	3-6 33%	4-5 44%	5-4 56%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

SDSU 23–15 CSU SDSU leads · 38 games since 1978 · SDSU has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SDSU+1.0 →−11.6▼ 12.6#117

CSU−7.1 →−8.7▼ 1.6#107

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

SDSU

Longer bar = better

CSU

#96

Offense

Even

#86

#113

Defense

CSU better ▶

#90

0.0 #68

Turnovers

◀ SDSU better

−0.6 #114

64 plays #105

Pace

CSU faster ▶

70 plays #43

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SDSU has the ball

Even matchup

	SDSU off	CSU def	Edge
Points / game	20.1 #116	32.1 #114	Even
Yards / play	5.11 #106	5.78 #84	CSU
PPA / play	+0.06 #96	+0.11 #77	Even
Success rate	43% #65	43% #85	Even

When CSU has the ball

Advantage: CSU offense

	CSU off	SDSU def	Edge
Points / game	26.3 #75	28.6 #94	Even
Yards / play	5.63 #74	6.12 #114	CSU
PPA / play	+0.03 #111	+0.20 #116	Even
Success rate	41% #84	47% #128	CSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

SDSU scoring against the CSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SDSU scored	4.1 #107	6.3 #99	10.4 #110	1.3 #133	7.6 #51	8.9 #123
CSU allowed	6.0 #88	7.9 #86	13.9 #83	7.3 #108	9.2 #111	16.6 #117

CSU scoring against the SDSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CSU scored	6.4 #55	5.2 #121	11.7 #95	2.6 #127	11.3 #3	13.9 #50
SDSU allowed	2.1 #7	11.2 #129	13.3 #75	6.9 #100	6.7 #73	13.6 #85

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.