Georgia Southern @ Marshall: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2023)

Sat, Nov 11, 2023, 7:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Marshall · Conference game

Weather at kickoff44°F6 mphDryWeather watch ›

Georgia Southern

6-3 · Power #92

final

Final

Marshall

4-5 · Power #96

▲ winner

Closing spread

GASO -1

✓ MRSH W

Total

56.5

▲ Over · 71 pts

Model before kickoff

GASO 29–28 MRSH

✗ GASO (53%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseGASO -1

Total56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseGASO -1

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close56.5

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–3 since 2023: won 48%, covered 43% (48 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseGASO -1

Total56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like GASO as a 1-point road favorite at MRSH, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: MRSH won 38–33 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 71 points went over 56.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 10.1 against an average line of 2.2; 55.1 points a game (usually 54.4). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CMU @ M-OH 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & rest	-1.75	17–28	L	U56
Very close	CMU @ BALL 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & rest	-2.5	37–17	W	U57
Very close	NEV @ CSU 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & total	-3	52–10	W	O57.75
Very close	COLO @ ASU 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & total	-3	27–24	P	U58.5
Very close	UTSA @ ARMY 2022 · Week 2 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2	41–38	W	O54
Very close	KENT @ BGSU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & situation	-2.75	40–6	W	U55.75
Very close	NIU @ BUFF 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & rest	-1.75	33–27	W	O59
Very close	WMU @ TOL 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-1.5	15–34	L	U54.5
Very close	SC @ MIZ 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & situation	-0.75	28–31	L	O55.75
Very close	UTSA @ FAU 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & total	-2.5	36–10	W	U58.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GASO WLLWL	4-4-1	50%	1-3	3-1-1
MRSH LLLLL	2-7	22%	1-3	0-4

Venue/role: GASO away, as favorite; MRSH home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
GASO UUOOO	4-5	44%	6-3
MRSH –OUUU	3-5	38%	4-5

Went over in Q4. Of 116 earlier overs in games with totals 52.5–60.5, 29% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GASOlast 9	6-3 67%	4-4-1 50%	4-5 44%
MRSHlast 9	4-5 44%	2-7 22%	3-5 38%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

GASO+2.5 →−1.9▼ 4.4#75

MRSH−2.3 →−6.2▼ 3.9#96

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

GASO

Longer bar = better

MRSH

#47

Offense

◀ GASO better

#110

#91

Defense

MRSH better ▶

#61

−0.3 #100

Turnovers

◀ GASO better

−1.0 #132

75 plays #5

Pace

◀ GASO faster

69 plays #46

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When GASO has the ball

Even matchup

	GASO off	MRSH def	Edge
Points / game	32.7 #35	28.4 #91	GASO
Yards / play	5.85 #63	5.73 #81	Even
PPA / play	+0.14 #60	+0.06 #47	Even
Success rate	46% #31	37% #26	Even

When MRSH has the ball

Even matchup

	MRSH off	GASO def	Edge
Points / game	22.9 #101	26.9 #79	GASO
Yards / play	5.17 #102	5.90 #97	Even
PPA / play	−0.03 #127	+0.13 #88	GASO
Success rate	39% #110	44% #98	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

GASO scoring against the MRSH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GASO scored	7.7 #33	12.0 #12	19.7 #15	6.9 #53	6.1 #89	13.0 #68
MRSH allowed	5.0 #56	10.9 #126	15.9 #105	6.1 #77	6.4 #66	12.6 #77

MRSH scoring against the GASO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MRSH scored	2.7 #127	7.8 #72	10.4 #110	7.4 #42	5.0 #110	12.4 #76
GASO allowed	4.7 #48	8.1 #88	12.8 #66	9.7 #129	4.4 #22	14.1 #92

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.