Marshall @ South Alabama: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2023)

Sat, Nov 18, 2023, 5:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at South Alabama · Conference game

Weather at kickoff70°F8 mphgusts 19DryWeather watch ›

Marshall

5-5 · Power #96

final

Final

South Alabama

5-5 · Power #49

▲ winner

Closing spread

USA -10

✓ USA W

Total

45.5

▼ Under · 28 pts

Model before kickoff

MRSH 19–30 USA

✓ USA (77%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUSA -10

Total45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseUSA -10

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close45.5

Line context

Home favorites of 9–11 since 2023: won 84%, covered 44% (45 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUSA -10

Total45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like USA as a 10-point home favorite against MRSH, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: USA won 28–0; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 28 points stayed under 45.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 74%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 9.8 against an average line of 10.8; 42.8 points a game (usually 54.8). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LIB vs VT 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-10.5	22–23	L	U46.25
Very close	ORST vs CAL 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-11.5	38–10	W	O47
Very close	BOIS vs FRES 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & spread	-10.5	40–20	W	O45
Very close	TROY vs ARMY 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & rest	-8.5	10–9	L	U45.5
Very close	DUKE vs VT 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & situation	-10	24–7	W	U50
Very close	MRSH vs UL 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & spread	-10.5	13–23	L	U45
Very close	WIS vs NU 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-12	10–24	L	U43.5
Very close	UAB vs WKU 2020 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & total	-11.5	37–14	W	O44
Very close	WVU vs BYU 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & situation	-12.5	37–7	W	U48.5
Very close	FRES vs SDSU 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & total	-10.75	32–28	L	O44.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MRSH LLLLW	3-7	30%	1-4	1-4
USA WWLLL	3-7	30%	1-4	2-4

Venue/role: MRSH away, as underdog; USA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MRSH OUUUO	4-5	44%	5-5
USA –OUUU	3-5	38%	5-5

Stayed under: it needed 25 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 52% of games with totals 41.5–49.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MRSH	5-5 50%	3-7 30%	4-5 44%
USA	5-5 50%	3-7 30%	3-5 38%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MRSH−2.3 →−5.5▼ 3.2#92

USA−6.2 →+2.6▲ 8.8#49

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

MRSH

Longer bar = better

USA

#101

Offense

USA better ▶

#45

#60

Defense

USA better ▶

#39

−1.1 #134

Turnovers

USA better ▶

−0.2 #93

68 plays #57

Pace

Even

67 plays #64

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MRSH has the ball

Advantage: USA defense

	MRSH off	USA def	Edge
Points / game	24.4 #86	21.1 #40	USA
Yards / play	5.31 #91	5.17 #39	USA
PPA / play	−0.01 #121	+0.07 #48	USA
Success rate	39% #106	38% #30	USA

When USA has the ball

Even matchup

	USA off	MRSH def	Edge
Points / game	29.9 #52	28.9 #99	USA
Yards / play	6.29 #35	5.62 #72	USA
PPA / play	+0.22 #30	+0.06 #46	Even
Success rate	43% #61	37% #23	MRSH

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

MRSH scoring against the USA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MRSH scored	3.4 #119	7.7 #72	11.1 #100	7.4 #43	5.9 #97	13.3 #64
USA allowed	2.7 #14	8.2 #86	10.9 #37	3.6 #16	6.6 #75	10.2 #35

USA scoring against the MRSH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USA scored	6.6 #54	7.8 #70	14.4 #70	7.9 #30	7.6 #49	15.5 #31
MRSH allowed	4.8 #51	11.5 #129	16.3 #109	6.1 #82	6.5 #69	12.6 #73

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.