Louisiana @ Troy: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2023)

Sat, Nov 18, 2023, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Troy · Conference game

Weather at kickoff69°F8 mphgusts 20DryWeather watch ›

Louisiana

5-5 · Power #87

final

Final

Troy

8-2 · Power #29

▲ winner

Closing spread

TROY -16

✓ UL W

Total

47.5

▲ Over · 55 pts

Model before kickoff

UL 17–33 TROY

✓ TROY (88%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTROY -16

Total47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseTROY -16

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close47.5

Line context

Home favorites of 14–18 since 2023: won 93%, covered 51% (74 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTROY -16

Total47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TROY as a 16-point home favorite against UL, the favorite won 8, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: TROY won 31–24; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 55 points went over 47.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 85%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 9.9 against an average line of 15.4; 49.5 points a game (usually 55.3). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	USA vs TXST 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & total	-16	38–21	W	O46
Very close	USA vs ODU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & situation	-16.5	27–20	L	P47
Very close	APP vs TROY 2020 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-14	47–10	W	O50.5
Very close	TOL vs BUFF 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & situation	-14.5	31–13	W	U47.25
Very close	BAY vs TTU 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & season form	-14	27–24	L	U51.5
Very close	UK vs VAN 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & spread	-17	21–24	L	U45.5
Very close	BOIS vs USU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & situation	-16.5	42–23	W	O52
Very close	MINN vs ILL 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & rest	-14.5	6–14	L	U44
Very close	TROY vs TXST 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & spread	-16.5	17–14	L	U47
Very close	MRSH vs ODU 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & rest	-14	41–35	L	O47

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UL WLWLL	3-7	30%	2-3	2-1
TROY WWWWW	6-4	60%	2-3	5-3

Venue/role: UL away, as underdog; TROY home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UL UUUUO	5-5	50%	5-5
TROY –UUUO	3-6	33%	8-2

Went over in Q4. Of 139 earlier overs in games with totals 43.5–51.5, 31% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UL	5-5 50%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%
TROY	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	3-6 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

UL 9–12 TROY TROY leads · 21 games since 1994 · UL has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UL+1.8 →−5.6▼ 7.4#93

TROY0.0 →+7.1▲ 7.1#30

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

Longer bar = better

TROY

#43

Offense

◀ UL better

#66

#89

Defense

TROY better ▶

#13

−0.1 #86

Turnovers

TROY better ▶

+0.3 #45

65 plays #99

Pace

TROY faster ▶

68 plays #53

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UL has the ball

Advantage: TROY defense

	UL off	TROY def	Edge
Points / game	31.1 #42	15.9 #8	TROY
Yards / play	6.24 #38	4.71 #12	TROY
PPA / play	+0.16 #56	−0.08 #5	TROY
Success rate	45% #35	37% #26	Even

When TROY has the ball

Advantage: TROY offense

	TROY off	UL def	Edge
Points / game	29.0 #57	28.6 #95	TROY
Yards / play	6.26 #36	5.36 #52	Even
PPA / play	+0.13 #66	+0.14 #91	TROY
Success rate	39% #104	46% #117	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

UL scoring against the TROY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UL scored	5.2 #84	9.9 #37	15.1 #58	7.8 #34	7.9 #39	15.7 #29
TROY allowed	3.4 #21	5.1 #21	8.5 #17	2.7 #8	4.7 #26	7.4 #9

TROY scoring against the UL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TROY scored	4.1 #103	10.1 #32	14.2 #72	5.1 #87	9.7 #13	14.8 #42
UL allowed	4.1 #34	7.0 #61	11.1 #41	7.6 #113	9.3 #116	16.9 #122

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.