UL Monroe @ Louisiana: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2023)

Sat, Nov 25, 2023, 3:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Louisiana · Conference game

Weather at kickoff67°F6 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›

UL Monroe

2-9 · Power #129

final

Final

Louisiana

5-6 · Power #87

▲ winner

Closing spread

UL -12.5

✓ UL W

Total

▲ Over · 73 pts

Model before kickoff

ULM 21–34 UL

✓ UL (82%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUL -12.5

Total53

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseUL -12.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close53

Line context

Home favorites of 10.5–14.5 since 2023: won 86%, covered 45% (71 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUL -12.5

Total53

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UL as a 12.5-point home favorite against ULM, the favorite won 9, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: UL won 52–21; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 73 points went over 53, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 80%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 13.1 against an average line of 13; 65.1 points a game (usually 55.4). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BUFF vs AKR 2022 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & rest	-12	23–22	L	U55
Very close	USU vs NEV 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-14.5	41–24	W	O54.25
Very close	WKU vs SHSU 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & rest	-11	28–23	L	U52.25
Very close	UNLV vs NEV 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-12.5	27–22	L	P49
Very close	BUFF vs BGSU 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & total	-13.5	44–56	L	O51.5
Very close	MTSU vs FIU 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-10.5	50–10	W	O55
Very close	TEM vs USF 2020 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & rest	-14	39–37	L	O52.75
Very close	TLSA vs USF 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & rest	-13.75	48–42	L	O57.5
Very close	WSU vs ARIZ 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & season form	-14.75	44–18	W	O52.5
Very close	SC vs VAN 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & rest	-13.5	47–6	W	U53.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ULM WLLLW	5-6	45%	3-2	5-4
UL LWLLW	4-7	36%	1-4	1-6

Venue/role: ULM away, as underdog; UL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ULM OOUOU	4-5	44%	2-9
UL UUUOO	6-5	55%	5-6

Went over in Q3. Of 153 earlier overs in games with totals 49–57, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ULM	1-9 10%	4-6 40%	4-5 44%
UL	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

ULM 16–25 UL UL leads · 41 games since 1976 · UL has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ULM+0.7 →−15.0▼ 15.7#127

UL+1.8 →−5.1▼ 6.9#91

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

ULM

Longer bar = better

#124

Offense

UL better ▶

#47

#106

Defense

UL better ▶

#92

+0.2 #50

Turnovers

◀ ULM better

−0.2 #95

63 plays #105

Pace

Even

65 plays #93

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ULM has the ball

Advantage: UL defense

	ULM off	UL def	Edge
Points / game	17.0 #133	28.8 #98	UL
Yards / play	5.18 #101	5.36 #56	UL
PPA / play	−0.03 #126	+0.15 #95	UL
Success rate	35% #134	46% #120	Even

When UL has the ball

Advantage: UL offense

	UL off	ULM def	Edge
Points / game	30.5 #47	33.4 #119	UL
Yards / play	6.17 #43	5.93 #96	UL
PPA / play	+0.16 #57	+0.16 #98	UL
Success rate	45% #39	45% #111	UL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

ULM scoring against the UL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ULM scored	3.5 #116	5.2 #122	8.6 #126	3.5 #116	4.8 #112	8.4 #124
UL allowed	3.7 #25	7.9 #76	11.6 #46	6.9 #96	9.7 #121	16.6 #120

UL scoring against the ULM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UL scored	5.4 #81	9.3 #43	14.6 #66	7.7 #35	7.8 #39	15.5 #33
ULM allowed	7.8 #116	9.5 #107	17.4 #118	5.6 #63	10.4 #130	16.0 #116

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.