Jacksonville State vs Louisiana: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl, 2023)

Sat, Dec 16, 2023, 2:15 PM ESTR+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl · Neutral site

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Jacksonville State

8-4 · Power #69

▲ winner

Final

Louisiana

6-6 · Power #87

final

Closing spread

JXST -3

Push

Total

▲ Over · 65 pts

Model before kickoff

JXST 29–26 UL

✓ JXST (59%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseJXST -3

Total59

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseJXST -3

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close59

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseJXST -3

Total59

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like JXST as a 3-point neutral-site favorite against UL, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: JXST won 34–31; the favorite pushed, as in 0 of the 10 similar games. 65 points went over 59, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0.4 against an average line of 3.5; 52.6 points a game (usually 53.9). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	USA vs WKU 2022 · Postseason · very close · similar situation & rest	-3.75	23–44	L	O58
Very close	UL vs MRSH 2021 · Postseason · very close · similar situation & rest	-4	36–21	W	O55.5
Very close	M-OH vs UNT 2021 · Postseason · very close · similar rest & spread	-2	27–14	W	U56.5
Very close	SJSU vs EMU 2022 · Postseason · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	27–41	L	O54
Very close	WYO vs KENT 2021 · Postseason · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	52–38	W	O60.5
Very close	TULN vs NEV 2020 · Postseason · very close · similar season form & total	-1.25	27–38	L	O56.5
Very close	UTSA vs TROY 2022 · Postseason · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	12–18	L	U56.5
Very close	TOL vs OHIO 2022 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-3.5	17–7	W	U54.5
Close	HOU vs UL 2022 · Postseason · close · similar rest & total	-5.25	23–16	W	U56.5
Close	WSU vs CMU 2021 · Postseason · close · similar season form & situation	-5.5	21–24	L	U56

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
JXST WWWWL	8-3-1	73%	—	4-1-1
UL WLLWW	5-7	42%	—	3-1

Venue/role: JXST neutral, as favorite; UL neutral, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
JXST UOOOU	5-7	42%	8-4
UL UUOOO	7-5	58%	6-6

Went over in Q4. Of 113 earlier overs in games with totals 55–63, 30% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
JXST	6-4 60%	6-3-1 67%	5-5 50%
UL	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

JXST−5.1 →−1.5▲ 3.6#69

UL+1.8 →−4.4▼ 6.2#87

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW15

JXST

Longer bar = better

#75

Offense

UL better ▶

#38

#18

Defense

◀ JXST better

#85

+0.8 #13

Turnovers

◀ JXST better

−0.1 #85

74 plays #9

Pace

◀ JXST faster

65 plays #95

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When JXST has the ball

Even matchup

	JXST off	UL def	Edge
Points / game	29.8 #53	28.2 #90	JXST
Yards / play	5.38 #89	5.26 #42	UL
PPA / play	+0.06 #99	+0.14 #88	Even
Success rate	42% #60	46% #121	JXST

When UL has the ball

Even matchup

	UL off	JXST def	Edge
Points / game	32.3 #35	20.3 #26	Even
Yards / play	6.28 #35	4.88 #16	Even
PPA / play	+0.17 #52	−0.03 #13	JXST
Success rate	46% #29	36% #16	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

JXST scoring against the UL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JXST scored	7.8 #29	6.5 #92	14.3 #70	7.8 #32	7.3 #55	15.0 #38
UL allowed	4.0 #27	7.8 #74	11.8 #46	6.3 #83	9.5 #121	15.8 #115

UL scoring against the JXST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UL scored	5.5 #79	10.5 #25	16.0 #44	8.3 #23	7.8 #42	16.0 #31
JXST allowed	6.0 #83	5.8 #32	11.8 #46	3.9 #23	4.6 #20	8.5 #13

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.