UTSA vs Marshall: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Scooter's Coffee Frisco Bowl, 2023)

Tue, Dec 19, 2023, 9:00 PM ESTScooter's Coffee Frisco Bowl · Neutral site

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UTSA

8-4 · Power #56

▲ winner

Final

Marshall

6-6 · Power #96

final

Closing spread

UTSA -7

✓ UTSA W

Total

▲ Over · 52 pts

Model before kickoff

UTSA 28–21 MRSH

✓ UTSA (69%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUTSA -7

Total47

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseUTSA -7

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close47

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUTSA -7

Total47

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UTSA as a 7-point neutral-site favorite against MRSH, the favorite won 8, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: UTSA won 35–17; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 52 points went over 47, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 69%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 10 against an average line of 7.5; 46.2 points a game (usually 53.9). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	GASO vs LT 2020 · Postseason · very close · similar spread & total	-7.25	38–3	W	U48
Very close	SDSU vs MTSU 2022 · Postseason · very close · similar spread & total	-7	23–25	L	O47
Very close	USM vs RICE 2022 · Postseason · very close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	38–24	W	O45.5
Close	GAST vs BALL 2021 · Postseason · close · similar situation & spread	-6	51–20	W	O53
Close	MEM vs FAU 2020 · Postseason · close · similar situation & team ratings	-9	25–10	W	U52.75
Close	UAB vs M-OH 2022 · Postseason · close · similar rest & situation	-10.75	24–20	L	U45.75
Close	AFA vs ARMY 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & rest	-7	13–7	L	U40.5
Close	TOL vs MTSU 2021 · Postseason · close · similar situation & rest	-10.5	24–31	L	O50
Close	TOL vs LIB 2022 · Postseason · close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	21–19	L	U51
Close	ARMY vs MIZ 2021 · Postseason · close · similar spread & season form	-7	24–22	L	U54

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
UTSA LPWWL	5-6-1	45%	—	5-4-1
MRSH LLWLW	4-8	33%	—	1-5

Venue/role: UTSA neutral, as favorite; MRSH neutral, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UTSA OUUOU	3-7-1	30%	8-4
MRSH UUOUO	5-6	45%	6-6

Went over in Q4. Of 155 earlier overs in games with totals 43–51, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UTSA	7-3 70%	5-4-1 56%	3-5-1 38%
MRSH	4-6 40%	3-7 30%	4-5 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UTSA+0.7 →+0.7–#60

MRSH−2.3 →−5.8▼ 3.5#95

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW15

UTSA

Longer bar = better

MRSH

#60

Offense

◀ UTSA better

#105

#44

Defense

Even

#52

−0.3 #98

Turnovers

◀ UTSA better

−1.1 #134

74 plays #7

Pace

◀ UTSA faster

67 plays #61

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UTSA has the ball

Even matchup

	UTSA off	MRSH def	Edge
Points / game	31.7 #38	28.2 #89	UTSA
Yards / play	5.72 #69	5.52 #64	Even
PPA / play	+0.13 #64	+0.05 #37	MRSH
Success rate	42% #69	37% #19	MRSH

When MRSH has the ball

Advantage: UTSA defense

	MRSH off	UTSA def	Edge
Points / game	23.3 #97	24.7 #59	UTSA
Yards / play	5.31 #93	5.16 #33	UTSA
PPA / play	0.00 #123	+0.08 #50	UTSA
Success rate	40% #105	39% #32	UTSA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

UTSA scoring against the MRSH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UTSA scored	7.2 #38	10.3 #30	17.4 #29	7.7 #35	6.6 #75	14.3 #45
MRSH allowed	5.2 #61	10.8 #124	15.9 #102	5.7 #61	6.6 #69	12.3 #65

MRSH scoring against the UTSA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MRSH scored	4.0 #108	7.6 #74	11.6 #94	6.8 #60	4.9 #112	11.7 #85
UTSA allowed	8.1 #117	7.9 #76	16.0 #104	2.6 #6	6.1 #59	8.7 #17

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.