James Madison vs Air Force: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl, 2023)

Sat, Dec 23, 2023, 3:30 PM ESTLockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl · Neutral site

Weather at kickoff68°F14 mphgusts 24Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

James Madison

11-1 · Power #28

final

Final

Air Force

8-4 · Power #52

▲ winner

Closing spread

AFA -2.5

✓ AFA W

Total

▲ Over · 52 pts

Model before kickoff

JMU 20–21 AFA

✓ AFA (52%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseAFA -2.5

Total44

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseAFA -2.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close44

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseAFA -2.5

Total44

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like AFA as a 2.5-point neutral-site favorite against JMU, the favorite won 7, covered 7, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: AFA won 31–21; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 52 points went over 44, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.3 against an average line of 2.5; 41.9 points a game (usually 54). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	SDSU vs UTSA 2021 · Postseason · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	38–24	W	O48
Close	NCST vs MD 2022 · Postseason · close · similar spread & total	-2	12–16	L	U45.25
Close	NW vs AUB 2020 · Postseason · close · similar situation & total	-3.5	35–19	W	O45
Close	HOU vs AUB 2021 · Postseason · close · similar situation & spread	-1.25	17–13	W	U49.25
Close	CLEM vs ISU 2021 · Postseason · close · similar total & spread	-1.75	20–13	W	U45
Close	LOU vs CIN 2022 · Postseason · close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	24–7	W	U38.5
Close	OKST vs ND 2021 · Postseason · close · similar total & spread	-1	37–35	W	O45
Close	AFA vs ARMY 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	14–21	L	U37.5
Close	MSST vs ILL 2022 · Postseason · close · similar spread & season form	-3.5	19–10	W	U46.5
Close	BAY vs AFA 2022 · Postseason · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	15–30	L	O42.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
JMU LWWLW	8-4	67%	—	1-0
AFA WLLLL	4-7-1	36%	0-2	4-6-1

Venue/role: JMU neutral, as underdog; AFA neutral, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
JMU OOOUO	7-5	58%	11-1
AFA UUUOO	6-6	50%	8-4

Went over in Q4. Of 118 earlier overs in games with totals 40–48, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
JMU	9-1 90%	8-2 80%	6-4 60%
AFA	6-4 60%	4-5-1 44%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

JMU+5.1 →+8.0▲ 2.9#25

AFA+5.5 →+1.5▼ 4.0#57

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW15

JMU

Longer bar = better

AFA

#34

Offense

◀ JMU better

#51

#12

Defense

Even

#24

+0.6 #23

Turnovers

◀ JMU better

−0.3 #101

69 plays #47

Pace

◀ JMU faster

63 plays #109

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When JMU has the ball

Even matchup

	JMU off	AFA def	Edge
Points / game	35.2 #18	17.9 #14	Even
Yards / play	6.28 #35	4.85 #16	Even
PPA / play	+0.17 #49	+0.05 #33	Even
Success rate	46% #32	39% #34	Even

When AFA has the ball

Advantage: JMU defense

	AFA off	JMU def	Edge
Points / game	27.6 #65	18.5 #18	JMU
Yards / play	5.78 #64	4.89 #17	JMU
PPA / play	+0.19 #44	−0.04 #10	JMU
Success rate	46% #29	32% #2	JMU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

JMU scoring against the AFA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JMU scored	7.7 #33	9.5 #44	17.2 #32	9.1 #11	8.7 #20	17.8 #10
AFA allowed	4.5 #40	7.0 #56	11.5 #38	3.2 #10	3.3 #4	6.4 #5

AFA scoring against the JMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
AFA scored	5.0 #88	9.8 #42	14.8 #64	6.8 #59	6.0 #85	12.8 #68
JMU allowed	1.7 #3	5.3 #26	7.0 #6	5.9 #71	5.1 #30	11.0 #45

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.