Arkansas State vs Northern Illinois: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Camellia Bowl, 2023)

Sat, Dec 23, 2023, 12:00 PM ESTCamellia Bowl · Neutral site

Weather at kickoff62°F4 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

Arkansas State

6-6 · Power #107

final

Final

Northern Illinois

6-6 · Power #94

▲ winner

Closing spread

ARST -2.5

✓ NIU W

Total

53.5

▼ Under · 40 pts

Model before kickoff

ARST 27–26 NIU

✗ ARST (54%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseARST -2.5

Total53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseARST -2.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close53.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseARST -2.5

Total53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ARST as a 2.5-point neutral-site favorite against NIU, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: NIU won 21–19 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 40 points stayed under 53.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 9.5 against an average line of 3.4; 49.7 points a game (usually 54). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TOL vs LIB 2022 · Postseason · very close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	21–19	L	U51
Very close	GAST vs WKU 2020 · Postseason · very close · similar situation & rest	-3.25	39–21	W	O50.5
Very close	M-OH vs UNT 2021 · Postseason · very close · similar rest & spread	-2	27–14	W	U56.5
Close	BGSU vs NMSU 2022 · Postseason · close · similar spread & situation	-3.25	19–24	L	U50.5
Close	SJSU vs EMU 2022 · Postseason · close · similar total & rest	-3.5	27–41	L	O54
Close	TOL vs OHIO 2022 · Week 14 · close · similar total & spread	-3.5	17–7	W	U54.5
Close	MD vs VT 2021 · Postseason · close · similar situation & total	-4.5	54–10	W	O55.5
Close	TULN vs NEV 2020 · Postseason · close · similar spread & total	-1.25	27–38	L	O56.5
Close	FRES vs WSU 2022 · Postseason · close · similar total & rest	-5.5	29–6	W	U54
Close	UL vs MRSH 2021 · Postseason · close · similar rest & total	-4	36–21	W	O55.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
ARST WWWWL	7-5	58%	—	1-0
NIU LLLWL	5-7	42%	—	3-1

Venue/role: ARST neutral, as favorite; NIU neutral, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ARST OUUOO	5-5	50%	6-6
NIU UOUUO	5-6	45%	6-6

Stayed under: it needed 20 in the 4th quarter and got 6. 55% of games with totals 49.5–57.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ARST	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	5-4 56%
NIU	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	4-5 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ARST−20.5 →−8.5▲ 12.0#105

NIU−1.1 →−5.8▼ 4.7#94

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW15

ARST

Longer bar = better

NIU

#67

Offense

Even

#71

#102

Defense

NIU better ▶

#45

+0.2 #52

Turnovers

◀ ARST better

−0.2 #90

64 plays #96

Pace

Even

63 plays #104

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ARST has the ball

Advantage: NIU defense

	ARST off	NIU def	Edge
Points / game	27.8 #63	21.2 #31	NIU
Yards / play	5.84 #58	5.06 #28	NIU
PPA / play	+0.13 #69	+0.10 #70	Even
Success rate	41% #78	41% #51	NIU

When NIU has the ball

Advantage: NIU offense

	NIU off	ARST def	Edge
Points / game	25.3 #82	31.2 #109	NIU
Yards / play	5.76 #65	6.19 #117	NIU
PPA / play	+0.13 #67	+0.19 #113	NIU
Success rate	42% #69	42% #69	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

ARST scoring against the NIU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARST scored	7.2 #38	5.3 #123	12.4 #88	7.8 #31	7.5 #51	15.3 #34
NIU allowed	4.5 #40	5.9 #31	10.4 #30	5.3 #56	5.2 #34	10.5 #36

NIU scoring against the ARST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NIU scored	4.3 #104	5.2 #125	9.4 #116	7.7 #35	7.7 #45	15.3 #34
ARST allowed	7.4 #106	10.2 #114	17.6 #117	7.2 #102	6.4 #65	13.6 #87

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.