Georgia State vs Utah State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Famous Idaho Potato Bowl, 2023)

Sat, Dec 23, 2023, 3:30 PM ESTFamous Idaho Potato Bowl · Neutral site

Weather at kickoff38°F12 mphgusts 23DryCold Over 50% of 115 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Georgia State

6-6 · Power #91

▲ winner

Final

Utah State

6-6 · Power #100

final

Closing spread

USU -2.5

✓ GAST W

Total

58.5

▲ Over · 67 pts

Model before kickoff

GAST 29–31 USU

✗ USU (56%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUSU -2.5

Total58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseUSU -2.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close58.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUSU -2.5

Total58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like USU as a 2.5-point neutral-site favorite against GAST, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: GAST won 45–22 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 67 points went over 58.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.3 against an average line of 3.1; 50.1 points a game (usually 54). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	M-OH vs UNT 2021 · Postseason · very close · similar rest & spread	-2	27–14	W	U56.5
Close	TULN vs NEV 2020 · Postseason · close · similar spread & total	-1.25	27–38	L	O56.5
Close	WAKE vs MIZ 2022 · Postseason · close · similar spread & total	-2.75	27–17	W	U58.75
Close	WYO vs KENT 2021 · Postseason · close · similar rest & spread	-3	52–38	W	O60.5
Close	SJSU vs EMU 2022 · Postseason · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	27–41	L	O54
Close	HOU vs UL 2022 · Postseason · close · similar rest & situation	-5.25	23–16	W	U56.5
Close	UTSA vs TROY 2022 · Postseason · close · similar spread & rest	-3	12–18	L	U56.5
Close	TOL vs LIB 2022 · Postseason · close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	21–19	L	U51
Close	TOL vs OHIO 2022 · Week 14 · close · similar spread	-3.5	17–7	W	U54.5
Close	GAST vs WKU 2020 · Postseason · close · similar season form & rest	-3.25	39–21	W	O50.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
GAST LLLLW	6-6	50%	—	3-2
USU LWWLL	6-6	50%	—	3-2

Venue/role: GAST neutral, as underdog; USU neutral, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
GAST OOUUU	5-7	42%	6-6
USU UPOUO	8-3-1	73%	6-6

Went over in Q4. Of 121 earlier overs in games with totals 54.5–62.5, 31% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GAST	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%
USU	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	7-2-1 78%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

GAST−3.6 →−6.5▼ 2.9#96

USU−5.3 →−5.5▼ 0.2#92

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW15

GAST

Longer bar = better

USU

#82

Offense

USU better ▶

#47

#96

Defense

Even

#92

+0.2 #50

Turnovers

◀ GAST better

−0.4 #107

67 plays #61

Pace

USU faster ▶

72 plays #16

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When GAST has the ball

Even matchup

	GAST off	USU def	Edge
Points / game	25.8 #80	33.8 #122	GAST
Yards / play	5.53 #80	5.53 #66	Even
PPA / play	+0.10 #79	+0.12 #79	Even
Success rate	41% #89	44% #102	Even

When USU has the ball

Advantage: USU offense

	USU off	GAST def	Edge
Points / game	34.1 #26	30.8 #107	USU
Yards / play	6.17 #41	6.36 #123	USU
PPA / play	+0.16 #53	+0.15 #90	USU
Success rate	42% #67	42% #64	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

GAST scoring against the USU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GAST scored	6.4 #53	8.8 #53	15.2 #56	4.9 #94	5.7 #96	10.6 #103
USU allowed	9.9 #131	8.8 #93	18.8 #123	4.7 #41	9.0 #115	13.7 #90

USU scoring against the GAST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USU scored	3.8 #112	11.6 #15	15.3 #54	8.0 #26	8.4 #27	16.4 #24
GAST allowed	4.3 #31	8.6 #89	12.8 #66	9.2 #126	8.8 #114	17.9 #128

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.