Utah State @ New Mexico: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2023)

Fri, Nov 24, 2023, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 13 · at New Mexico · Conference game

Weather at kickoff49°F14 mphgusts 27DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Utah State

5-6 · Power #100

▲ winner

Final

New Mexico

4-7 · Power #117

final

Closing spread

USU -5

✓ UNM W

Total

▲ Over · 85 pts

Model before kickoff

USU 32–27 UNM

✓ USU (63%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUSU -5

Total59

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseUSU -5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close59

Line context

Road favorites of 3–7 since 2023: won 62%, covered 49% (95 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUSU -5

Total59

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like USU as a 5-point road favorite at UNM, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: USU won 44–41; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 85 points went over 59, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.4 against an average line of 4.3; 61 points a game (usually 53.5). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	OHIO @ BALL 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & rest	-3.5	32–18	W	U57.5
Very close	GAST @ USA 2020 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & season form	-3.5	31–14	W	U58.5
Very close	NIU @ BALL 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & rest	-3.25	38–44	L	O58.5
Very close	WMU @ NIU 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & situation	-7	42–21	W	O58.5
Very close	TXST @ ARST 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & rest	-3.25	31–77	L	O59.5
Very close	WKU @ LT 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & rest	-6	35–28	W	O59
Very close	GASO @ BALL 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & rest	-6	40–3	W	U61
Very close	KENT @ M-OH 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & rest	-5	24–27	L	U56.5
Very close	BALL @ NIU 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & situation	-3	29–30	L	U59.5
Very close	KENT @ BGSU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar season form & situation	-2.75	40–6	W	U55.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USU WLWWL	6-5	55%	2-3	3-1
UNM WLLLW	5-6	45%	2-3	4-4

Venue/role: USU away, as favorite; UNM home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USU OUPOU	7-3-1	70%	5-6
UNM OOOUU	8-3	73%	4-7

Went over in Q4. Of 99 earlier overs in games with totals 55–63, 31% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USU	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	7-2-1 78%
UNM	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

USU 17–15 UNM USU leads · 32 games since 1951 · UNM has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

USU−5.3 →−5.6▼ 0.3#94

UNM−11.8 →−11.1▲ 0.7#117

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

USU

Longer bar = better

UNM

#52

Offense

Even

#40

#93

Defense

◀ USU better

#130

−0.4 #105

Turnovers

◀ USU better

−0.7 #127

72 plays #22

Pace

◀ USU faster

64 plays #103

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USU has the ball

Advantage: USU offense

	USU off	UNM def	Edge
Points / game	33.2 #28	34.3 #122	USU
Yards / play	6.14 #46	6.75 #133	USU
PPA / play	+0.14 #62	+0.28 #133	USU
Success rate	42% #70	48% #132	USU

When UNM has the ball

Advantage: UNM offense

	UNM off	USU def	Edge
Points / game	26.0 #76	33.2 #118	UNM
Yards / play	6.25 #36	5.48 #64	UNM
PPA / play	+0.21 #35	+0.11 #76	UNM
Success rate	48% #14	45% #112	UNM

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

USU scoring against the UNM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USU scored	2.8 #123	12.4 #9	15.2 #57	8.1 #27	8.5 #26	16.6 #20
UNM allowed	6.3 #87	13.8 #133	20.1 #129	7.1 #101	6.8 #79	13.9 #92

UNM scoring against the USU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNM scored	5.2 #84	9.4 #43	14.5 #68	4.5 #102	6.4 #77	10.9 #102
USU allowed	10.2 #132	9.0 #93	19.2 #124	4.5 #40	8.9 #111	13.4 #87

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.