Boise State @ Utah State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2023)

Sat, Nov 18, 2023, 7:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Utah State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff47°F2 mphWet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Boise State

5-5 · Power #48

▲ winner

Final

Utah State

5-5 · Power #100

final

Closing spread

BOIS -4

✓ BOIS W

Total

▼ Under · 55 pts

Model before kickoff

BOIS 33–30 USU

✓ BOIS (59%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseBOIS -4

Total64

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseBOIS -4

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close64

Line context

Road favorites of 3–5 since 2023: won 53%, covered 38% (47 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseBOIS -4

Total64

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BOIS as a 4-point road favorite at USU, the favorite won 4, covered 3, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: BOIS won 45–10; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 55 points stayed under 64, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 6.1 against an average line of 4.1; 61.7 points a game (usually 54.1). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	GT @ DUKE 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-4.5	31–27	L	U60.5
Very close	APP @ CCU 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & situation	-3	28–35	L	U65.25
Very close	WMU @ EMU 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & situation	-6	21–22	L	U66
Very close	WSU @ ARIZ 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & rest	-4	31–20	W	U63
Very close	CSU @ USU 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3	24–44	L	O62
Very close	TULN @ ECU 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & rest	-3	29–52	L	O64.5
Very close	OKST @ UCF 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & rest	-2.5	3–45	L	U64
Very close	VT @ LOU 2020 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & rest	-4	42–35	W	O67.5
Very close	LIB @ WKU 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & rest	-4	42–29	W	O61.5
Very close	HOU @ MEM 2020 · Week 15 · very close · similar total & rest	-6.5	27–30	L	U64.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BOIS PLWLW	4-4-2	50%	0-4-1	3-2-1
USU WWLWW	6-4	60%	4-1	3-3

Venue/role: BOIS away, as favorite; USU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BOIS –OUOU	5-3	63%	5-5
USU OOUPO	7-2-1	78%	5-5

Stayed under: it needed 17 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 45% of games with totals 60–68 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BOIS	5-5 50%	4-4-2 50%	5-3 63%
USU	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	7-2-1 78%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BOIS−9.9 →+0.5▲ 10.4#59

USU−5.3 →−3.5▲ 1.8#80

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

BOIS

Longer bar = better

USU

#33

Offense

Even

#42

#95

Defense

Even

#86

−0.5 #117

Turnovers

USU better ▶

0.0 #70

69 plays #49

Pace

USU faster ▶

72 plays #23

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BOIS has the ball

Advantage: BOIS offense

	BOIS off	USU def	Edge
Points / game	31.2 #42	32.0 #115	BOIS
Yards / play	6.40 #30	5.37 #58	BOIS
PPA / play	+0.20 #40	+0.09 #60	Even
Success rate	48% #20	45% #111	BOIS

When USU has the ball

Advantage: USU offense

	USU off	BOIS def	Edge
Points / game	35.5 #21	27.4 #85	USU
Yards / play	6.24 #37	6.18 #115	USU
PPA / play	+0.17 #54	+0.15 #94	USU
Success rate	43% #54	43% #85	USU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

BOIS scoring against the USU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BOIS scored	5.6 #75	10.9 #24	16.5 #39	5.9 #72	8.8 #23	14.7 #44
USU allowed	11.2 #132	6.8 #52	18.0 #121	4.2 #36	9.1 #113	13.3 #87

USU scoring against the BOIS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USU scored	2.4 #129	13.3 #5	15.7 #48	8.9 #16	9.4 #16	18.3 #12
BOIS allowed	4.8 #52	9.4 #102	14.2 #86	4.3 #38	8.9 #109	13.2 #85

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.