New Mexico @ Boise State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2023)

Sat, Nov 11, 2023, 10:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Boise State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff48°F3 mphDryWeather watch ›

New Mexico

3-6 · Power #117

final

Final

Boise State

4-5 · Power #48

▲ winner

Closing spread

BOIS -27.5

✓ BOIS W

Total

58.5

▼ Under · 56 pts

Model before kickoff

UNM 17–42 BOIS

✓ BOIS (97%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseBOIS -27.5

Total58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseBOIS -27.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close58.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseBOIS -27.5

Total58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BOIS as a 27.5-point home favorite against UNM, the favorite won 10, covered 4, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: BOIS won 42–14; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 56 points stayed under 58.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 94%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 54%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 60%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 23.2 against an average line of 26.4; 63 points a game (usually 57.5). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	FRES vs HAW 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & situation	-27.5	55–13	W	O62
Close	TENN vs USA 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-28.25	60–14	W	O61.5
Close	BYU vs USU 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar total & spread	-26	38–26	L	O60
Close	APP vs ULM 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & total	-27	59–28	W	O57.5
Close	WMU vs AKR 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & rest	-24.5	45–40	L	O62
Close	TOL vs AKR 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar total & situation	-28.5	49–14	W	O57.5
Loose	LSU vs ULM 2021 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & total	-29	27–14	L	U57.5
Loose	SMU vs CLT 2023 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & situation	-23.5	34–16	L	U53.5
Loose	SJSU vs NMSU 2021 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & season form	-25.5	37–31	L	O51.5
Loose	APP vs GASO 2021 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest & situation	-24.5	27–3	L	U55

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNM WLWLL	4-5	44%	2-2	3-3
BOIS PPLWL	3-4-2	43%	3-0-1	2-2-1

Venue/role: UNM away, as underdog; BOIS home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNM OOOOO	8-1	89%	3-6
BOIS O–OUO	5-2	71%	4-5

Stayed under: it needed 6 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 45% of games with totals 54.5–62.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNMlast 9	3-6 33%	4-5 44%	8-1 89%
BOISlast 9	4-5 44%	3-4-2 43%	5-2 71%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UNM−11.8 →−13.5▼ 1.7#123

BOIS−9.9 →−0.3▲ 9.6#65

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

UNM

Longer bar = better

BOIS

#42

Offense

Even

#41

#133

Defense

BOIS better ▶

#97

−0.7 #125

Turnovers

Even

−0.7 #123

64 plays #103

Pace

BOIS faster ▶

69 plays #44

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UNM has the ball

Advantage: UNM offense

	UNM off	BOIS def	Edge
Points / game	27.4 #70	28.9 #100	UNM
Yards / play	6.17 #42	6.23 #119	UNM
PPA / play	+0.22 #29	+0.15 #98	UNM
Success rate	47% #26	42% #71	UNM

When BOIS has the ball

Advantage: BOIS offense

	BOIS off	UNM def	Edge
Points / game	30.0 #51	35.3 #129	BOIS
Yards / play	6.25 #36	6.83 #133	BOIS
PPA / play	+0.17 #51	+0.27 #134	BOIS
Success rate	47% #25	49% #134	BOIS

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

UNM scoring against the BOIS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNM scored	5.2 #80	9.7 #42	14.9 #61	4.9 #97	7.0 #64	11.9 #85
BOIS allowed	4.6 #46	9.7 #105	14.2 #89	4.8 #48	9.9 #125	14.7 #99

BOIS scoring against the UNM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BOIS scored	4.6 #94	10.2 #28	14.8 #62	5.8 #75	9.4 #15	15.2 #35
UNM allowed	5.2 #65	14.2 #133	19.4 #128	7.9 #116	7.7 #93	15.6 #110

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.