Ohio @ Buffalo: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2023)

Tue, Nov 7, 2023, 7:30 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Buffalo · Conference game

Weather at kickoff43°F11 mphgusts 21DryWeather watch ›

Ohio

6-3 · Power #63

▲ winner

Final

Buffalo

3-6 · Power #119

final

Closing spread

OHIO -9

✓ OHIO W

Total

▼ Under · 30 pts

Model before kickoff

OHIO 26–18 BUFF

✓ OHIO (73%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseOHIO -9

Total45

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseOHIO -9

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close45

Line context

Road favorites of 7–11 since 2023: won 70%, covered 55% (44 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseOHIO -9

Total45

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like OHIO as a 9-point road favorite at BUFF, the favorite won 8, covered 3, and 7 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: OHIO won 20–10; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 30 points stayed under 45, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 71%

Favorite covered

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 8.8 against an average line of 8.3; 50.8 points a game (usually 54.5). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	JMU @ ODU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & team ratings	-7.5	37–3	W	U48
Very close	APP @ GASO 2020 · Week 15 · very close · similar total & situation	-9.5	34–26	L	O45
Very close	SDSU @ HAW 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & situation	-7	17–10	P	U45.25
Very close	USA @ USM 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & situation	-7.5	27–20	L	O45
Very close	FAU @ USM 2020 · Week 15 · very close · similar spread & total	-9.5	31–45	L	O43.5
Very close	M-OH @ WMU 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & spread	-7.5	34–21	W	O45
Very close	TROY @ TXST 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar season form & spread	-7.5	31–28	L	O48.5
Very close	SYR @ BC 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & total	-10.5	32–23	L	O47
Very close	MINN @ NU 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & spread	-7.5	41–14	W	O43.5
Very close	TOL @ WMU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & situation	-8.5	14–20	L	U50.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
OHIO WLLLL	3-6	33%	2-2	1-5
BUFF WWLWL	5-4	56%	1-3	4-2

Venue/role: OHIO away, as favorite; BUFF home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
OHIO U–UUO	1-6	14%	6-3
BUFF U–UUU	4-4	50%	3-6

Stayed under: it needed 33 in the 4th quarter and got 17. 51% of games with totals 41–49 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
OHIOlast 9	6-3 67%	3-6 33%	1-6 14%
BUFFlast 9	3-6 33%	5-4 56%	4-4 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

OHIO+0.9 →−1.5▼ 2.4#72

BUFF−8.2 →−9.9▼ 1.7#112

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

OHIO

Longer bar = better

BUFF

#81

Offense

◀ OHIO better

#111

Defense

◀ OHIO better

#71

0.0 #64

Turnovers

BUFF better ▶

+0.6 #29

68 plays #57

Pace

BUFF faster ▶

72 plays #25

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When OHIO has the ball

Even matchup

	OHIO off	BUFF def	Edge
Points / game	21.8 #106	29.1 #102	Even
Yards / play	5.16 #101	5.95 #101	Even
PPA / play	+0.10 #80	+0.04 #36	BUFF
Success rate	45% #38	39% #43	Even

When BUFF has the ball

Advantage: OHIO defense

	BUFF off	OHIO def	Edge
Points / game	24.4 #87	15.7 #7	OHIO
Yards / play	4.51 #129	4.71 #15	OHIO
PPA / play	−0.05 #130	−0.09 #4	OHIO
Success rate	40% #98	35% #9	OHIO

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

OHIO scoring against the BUFF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OHIO scored	4.7 #93	7.6 #74	12.2 #88	5.8 #75	3.8 #126	9.6 #113
BUFF allowed	7.1 #106	8.3 #91	15.4 #105	7.2 #102	6.4 #69	13.7 #86

BUFF scoring against the OHIO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BUFF scored	5.8 #70	5.7 #113	11.4 #101	7.8 #36	4.9 #110	12.7 #75
OHIO allowed	1.1 #2	4.4 #13	5.6 #4	3.7 #22	6.4 #69	10.1 #36

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.