Bowling Green @ Kent State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2023)

Wed, Nov 8, 2023, 7:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Kent State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff52°F10 mphgusts 20DryWeather watch ›

Bowling Green

5-4 · Power #80

▲ winner

Final

Kent State

1-8 · Power #133

final

Closing spread

BGSU -11.5

✓ BGSU W

Total

41.5

▲ Over · 68 pts

Model before kickoff

BGSU 27–15 KENT

✓ BGSU (80%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseBGSU -11.5

Total41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseBGSU -11.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close41.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseBGSU -11.5

Total41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BGSU as an 11.5-point road favorite at KENT, the favorite won 9, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: BGSU won 49–19; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 68 points went over 41.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 79%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 12.4 against an average line of 11.5; 51.8 points a game (usually 55.7). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NAVY @ TEM 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & total	-13.5	38–14	W	O42.5
Very close	CSU @ UNM 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-13	36–7	W	U44.75
Very close	FAU @ FIU 2020 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & rest	-9.5	38–19	W	O42
Very close	FAU @ USM 2020 · Week 15 · very close · similar situation & total	-9.5	31–45	L	O43.5
Close	SDSU @ UNLV 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar total & spread	-11	28–20	L	O41
Close	TROY @ ARST 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & situation	-13.5	48–19	W	O44
Close	WYO @ CSU 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar total & season form	-8.5	14–13	L	U42.5
Close	TLSA @ NAVY 2020 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & spread	-12	19–6	W	U45.5
Close	ASU @ COLO 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & season form	-13	42–34	L	O48.5
Close	WYO @ HAW 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & rest	-11.5	27–20	L	U50.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BGSU WLWWL	6-3	67%	4-1	2-1
KENT LWLLL	3-6	33%	1-2	2-6

Venue/role: BGSU away, as favorite; KENT home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BGSU O–UOO	4-3	57%	5-4
KENT U–OUO	4-3	57%	1-8

Went over in Q4. Of 53 earlier overs in games with totals 37.5–45.5, 25% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BGSUlast 9	5-4 56%	6-3 67%	4-3 57%
KENTlast 9	1-8 11%	3-6 33%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BGSU−3.0 →−6.4▼ 3.4#98

KENT−15.5 →−19.9▼ 4.4#133

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

BGSU

Longer bar = better

KENT

#108

Offense

◀ BGSU better

#134

#52

Defense

◀ BGSU better

#112

+0.7 #21

Turnovers

◀ BGSU better

−0.1 #76

59 plays #130

Pace

KENT faster ▶

63 plays #113

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BGSU has the ball

Even matchup

	BGSU off	KENT def	Edge
Points / game	22.4 #103	32.8 #120	Even
Yards / play	5.11 #109	5.80 #86	KENT
PPA / play	+0.02 #114	+0.24 #128	Even
Success rate	39% #107	45% #112	Even

When KENT has the ball

Advantage: BGSU defense

	KENT off	BGSU def	Edge
Points / game	14.1 #136	24.6 #64	BGSU
Yards / play	4.31 #134	5.30 #48	BGSU
PPA / play	−0.05 #130	+0.02 #31	BGSU
Success rate	34% #134	42% #64	BGSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

BGSU scoring against the KENT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BGSU scored	3.8 #111	8.3 #65	12.1 #89	6.9 #52	3.4 #128	10.3 #103
KENT allowed	8.2 #120	8.4 #92	16.7 #112	7.7 #111	8.4 #101	16.1 #113

KENT scoring against the BGSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KENT scored	4.7 #93	3.8 #132	8.4 #125	4.1 #109	1.6 #132	5.7 #133
BGSU allowed	8.4 #122	6.0 #36	14.4 #93	6.8 #94	3.3 #9	10.1 #37

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.